Ninth Innings of the MLB Regular season…

The American League playoff teams seems to be set, with only Boston Red Sox needing to go something like 11-4 and have either Tampa Bay or NY Yankees go 6-8 roughly to have any chance of making the playoffs. But the way they are playing, I would suggest it’s very unlikely. And I would say it’s less likely that Boston starts wining, than NY Yankee or Rays loosing.

Now before I break down who will win the American League. There are people talking about NY Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays “tanking” so they play Minnesota (currently 89 wins), rather than Texas Rangers (83) but this seems crazy to me. First of all, you want home field advantage, but even more importantly than that if you have the better record in the league, you have can choose the long series or the short series. In other words, will your 5 game playoff series be played over 6 or 7 days approx. If you recall from last year this was extremely significant as the NY Yankees got away with using a three man pitching rotation, as they choose the long series. They were also helped that the World Series is stretched out for tv reasons.

Okay going to the National League before I finalise my picks..

I still think the Wild Card slot will come from Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies (NL East). Though they are about to play each other in an important series. The National League West has three teams in the race, but will end up beating up on each other, and there are not enough “wins” available in the NL West for a team to come through and get the wild card. The top team in the West San Francisco Giants currently trails the Braves by 2, 86-84 wins.

Obviously in the NL Central I don’t give the St Louis Cardinals a chance, and concede the Division to Cincinnati Reds. Just on this division, if you recall the series that Cincinnati played against the St Louis Cardinals in August where St Louis swept the Cincinnati Reds and there was this big fight? Like so many “analysts” I thought that the St Louis Cardinals would just go out with it, and the Cincinnati Reds would fall in a heap. Instead, after being at the top of the Division it was the St Louis Cardinals who collapsed and it was the Cincinnati Reds who managed to put the game behind them and kick on! Whatever happened to Momentum???

From the National League West, I want San Diego Padres. I backed them at $6.50 to win the division, they got out to a 6 game lead, and now are behind by ½ game at the time of writing. Sadly I don’t think that their pitching will get them over the line. And I feel that it San Francisco has the pitching and just enough hitting to get them home. Pitcher Tim Lincecum is really the difference maker in this team, when he was slumping it seemed the whole team was slumping. When he sorted out his mechanics, it seemed like the whole franchise sorted everything out and have been kicking on. There was an initial concern for Giant fans when during the time the San Diego Padres lost 10 in a row and the San Francisco Giants only went 3-7 or 4-6 in that span themselves. But now that they lead and have their destiny in their own hands, I think that the San Francisco will win the division.

Which leads to my tips..

As much as I would love to say the Atlanta Braves with the National League ~ team I tipped at the beginning of the season to win the National League. I see the Phillies winning the National League. Since they are from the same Division they cannot play each other in the first round of the playoffs. I see both teams winning their opening round, against Cincinnati and San Francisco Giants (or anyone else from the NL West). With the Phillies winning the National League. It’s not that Atlanta is not without a hope. Just that the Phillies experience, pitching in Roy Halladay and Oswalt one two, and all their injured players coming back.. Should be simply too good. The home field advantage should help too.

From the American League, I am going to say Texas beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS. It’s not that I don’t rate the Yankees. Just that I don’t think when it matters, the Yankees have the pitching. Sure CC Sabathia is getting the job done. But I really feel that Tampa Bay and Texas Rangers are deeper and even more hungrier than the World Series Champion Yankees. As you can tell I don’t give much chop to Minnesota Twins. The fact they have no Ace, like the other three teams – and really not a batting order to fear, I see them easily being accounted for by Tampa Bay or NY Yankees who will play them in the first round.

Of the Rays and Texas, give me the Texas Rangers. The reason I tipped the Seattle Mariners was that they had Cliff Lee, and now that they traded him to Texas Rangers, I am going to go with the strength and tip the Texas Rangers as my World Series Champions.

Can I just point out that pitching is supposed to win Championships? When Seattle had Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, who has Cy Young numbers (even better than CC Sabathia, except wins) how on earth could they be this bad!?!? I understand you still have to hit the ball. But really, two of the best pitchers in the League and you have a .383 record? In Felix Hernandez’s ten losses, Seattle have given him a total of ten runs in support! Yes, average of one run per game.

As for the World Series it has to be the Texas Rangers. Though the pitching rotation of the Phillies starts with Halladay and they have home field advantage in the World Series. I think Cliff Lee beats R Halladay in both their matchups and Oswalt is “National League” good, but I like everything I see from the Texas Rangers lineup and should be able to out hit the Phillies. Pitcher C Wilson for Texas is a very good number two.

Check out my prices at Betchoice.com

NBA Championship 2009/2010 Final Preview

Going back to my October 26 2009 Post... tittled

NFL, NBA Preview, and the World Series

Have a good read and you will see I mention that for the NFL I had New Orleans Saint as the best team and Indianapolis Colts are up there, sure I looked for value and my other teams disappointed unless you backed them and then traded them to a profit.

The same article had the NY Yankees beating the Philadelphia Phillies in five.. before the MLB season I tipped this very World Series though it wasn't hard as NY Yankees finally got pitching and Philadelphia Phillies as I suggested didn't getting worse, Yankees ended up winning in six.

More importantly at the beginning of this NBA season I suggested in the article that the Boston Celtics beat the LA Lakers in finals 4-2. I will admit that there is an article in between which made me feel that the value was in Cleveland and Utah Jazz, but that's based on market price, rather than say who I suggested straight out felt, and who I would feel that would win. Admitadly Boston were looking worn a little and old, and Kobe's finger and Andrew Bynum's back was a major concern.

My biggest concern in this series for the Boston Celtics is rebounding. Especially on their defensive end. If you break down game two of the Eastern Conference Finals, though they won it and for mine was the flat out better team. Even when they were trying, only leading by 4 points or less. There were stretches were Orlando were dominating the offensive boards. If you are to suggest that's going to happen with Superman in the middle, that's fine. But LA Lakers have three big men as big as Dwight Howard, sure they are not as powerful and defensively dominate as he is. But it really concerns me as an original Celtics tipster.

The Celtics have beaten the two teams with the best record in the NBA. Though I didn't feel it was a surprise against the Orlando Magic, where I personally took plenty of the $3.00 on the Celtics to win the series (they were even $1.93 or pick'em after they won game one in Orlando). I was somewhat surprised how they beat the Cleveland Cavs as easily as they did. There is no doubt in my mind that there were serious issues with LeBron's elbow.

The Boston Celtics have made it to the NBA Final Series through tough defense, defense defense. Throughout the playoffs, up until the Orlando's win in Game Four of the eastern Conference final, the Celtics opponents were averaging 18 turnovers per game. Celtics in the last three games had 15 to Orlandos 19 and lost at home, 10-13 and lost and 13-12 and won. They have also kept their opposition to 40% shooting during this period.

My advice, if you break down a game, and say watch it for the second time. Is to just watch defense, and don't watch the amazing dunks and shots. Watch who is guarding who, watch where people are standing when Kobe makes his shots, why isn't someone in his face? If there is someone in his face, fine Kobe is a great player, and they are getting beaten by a great player/shot! But if he is wide open or the defender is 2 foot away, why? Who isn't rotating properly? Where are the double teams coming from and why?

To this I am going to suggest that Paul Pierce will no doubt guard Kobe Bryant and use Tony Allen off the bench to help as well. I am not stupid enough to suggest that Pierce will stop Kobe, but I will suggest that he will atleast do a good job on Kobe as he did on LeBron. Kobe averaged 33.7 pts (52.1%), 7.2 rebounds and 8.30 assists against the Suns, of course he won't average this against the more defensive orientated Celtics. Some people suggest that the Lakers don't have a true point guard, with Kobe playing the way he does you honestly don't need one. Two years ago the Celtics "stopped" Kobe by making him average 25.7 pts (40%) ~ though the Lakers didn't have Andrew Bynum (injury) or Defensive orientated Trevor Ariza (broken foot) two years ago, the Celtics won Game 6 in LA 131-92 hmmmmm.

As I suggested, when watching the same game for second or third time I like to watch defensive match ups and rotations. But after watching the Suns "defense" in Game One and Two of the Western Conference Finals, I almost stopped watching the Suns doing a "good" job on the Lakers. Their defense this season has seriously improved so much, that they deserve to be in the Western Conference Finals. But, your going to say that the Lakers scored 128 in game one, they did! Which leads me to suggest that though I started to watch the Suns much improved attitude to defense, they could not stop LA Lakers passing. Especially inside the key. When Pau Gasol is passing like he was in game one, the team is unstoppable.

Now lets add Tex Winter's Three Post Play (you might know it as Phil Jackson's triangle offense) to Pau Gasol perfect passing, add how I mentioned that Boston Celtics were getting burned by Orlando's offensive rebounds and extra shots. It means you have three Lakers ready in position to burn the offensive boards, against a team which looked vulnerable in rebounding. And though you might be able to give Orlando Magic some extra shots and win, you can't do that against the LA Lakers.

Just ask the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game six, Kobe missed what should have been the final shot, but who was in position to get the offensive board and the game winning putback? The second post player, Pau Gasol. That single and defining play might be a microcosm of the entire series. Hopefully Doc Rivers will sort something out and KG just won't allow it. Just to illustrate my point again, it happened in Game five of the Western Conference final, Kobe missed again, and though I actually feel that the Phoenix Suns played that shot perfectly against Kobe, Ron Artest was just a little bit quicker to react to Kobe's Airball then Jason Richardson and the Lakers get their second last gasp win. If Kobe hit the rim, or pretty much anything other than that airball the game goes into overtime. Sadly for the Suns they boxed out the big men and got the stop on Kobe, but such is Basketball.

As for the Zone defense which worked effectively against the Lakers in Game 2,3,4 for the Suns. I feel that the Celtics may try it and may try for long periods of time. But Doc Rivers loves to play Man-on-Man, which was illustrated in not bringing a double team on Dwight Howard and leaving Perkins to Man up on him.

So I guess I want to give reason why to stay on the Celtics Bandwagon. Well it all starts with Brian Scalabrine (joking) of course it starts with Rajon Rondo. One of the best point guards battles I have seen is when the Chicago Bulls' Derrick Rose took the Celtics to seven Games last year. Most figured that it was the Big three which got the Celtics home, but Rondo really showed what he was about, and Derrick Rose was amazing.

This playoffs Rajon Rondo has added the drive and kick out. Scoring more, taking it to the hoop more, and generally making better decisions. His passes have been near perfect, and really made look LeBron James Cavs look ordinary. So much will come down to how he plays. Looking at the Western Conference Finals series, the LA Lakers struggled defensively when Steve Nash for the Phoenix Suns, drove and kicked out or shot himself. So if Rondo plays like he did against the Cavs, in Game 1,2,3 and 6 vs the Magic, Boston can really take the big men out of the series and win the Championship. He was very tentative in the 4th qtr of Game 4 and the overtime, as well as Game five (injured???) but stepped up in Game six, even taking some hard fouls and playing on. Nate Robinson had a great little period in game six, but I would not be relying on this or Marquis Daniels return for the Celtics to win the Championship.

These teams have played twice this season, with the road team winning each time. Boston can win because they are the first NBA Finalist with a better record on the road (26-15) than at home (24-17) in the regular season, they are also 6-3 away from home this postseason.

Now in the Cavs series the Cavs had the best player on the court in LeBron James, let's not debate that. But it was the Celtics who had the next best 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th (Perkins or Davis), then back to Cavs for 8th (Mo Williams) back to 9th in Tony Allen.

In this series I am going to go Kobe, then Rondo, Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Lamar Odom, Kendrick Perkins, Glen 'Baby' Davis and then suggest all the rest are tier three players, that is average mid range players including Derek Fisher and Rashard Wallace. Suggesting that LA Lakers have the big superstar in Kobe, Boston has the Big 4 (including Rondo) and the LA Lakers have the three talls... it's a pretty even matchup. No clear cut advantage.

Did you know...

The Celtics and the Lakers have combined to win 32 of the 62 NBA Championships, they have met 12 times in the Finals, the last one two years ago which Boston won.

Okay here's my theory on why Phil Jackson has been told to take a pay cut. Remember Phil Jackson has won ten rings, the LA Lakers could not win a Championship in recent times without him. Dr Jerry Buss isn't exactly strapped for money, nor should the Francisce be considering the superstars in the front row, every 4"9" asian in Australia has a Kobe shirt (and Man United) and they are in the finals. So why then? Why slap this Lakers icon in the face? Because Kobe Bryants ego is once again coming to light. He has won a title with Shaq, then had to prove to the world he can win without him so got rid of Shaq. Now everyone is saying that Kobe can't with with Phil Jackson, and Kobe's ego wants to be better than Michael Jordan, so I am tipping that he has spoken to management and said it's me or Phil. Though Phil might be married to Jerry's daughter I think people will still come and watch the Lakers without Phil, rather than not having Kobe to look at.

Well if you are still reading or just skipped down to the bottom of the page, Remember the series is 2-3-2 meaning two in LA, then three in Boston and two in LA.

Boston jumps out and wins game one in LA, currently +5.5 outsiders or $2.97 to win. Don't forget Phil Jackson is something like 47-0 when winning game one. Then Lakers win Game two...

Now here I am not sure about and want to say that Boston win all three at home, but really it would not surprise me if Lakers take one here, so the series goes back to Los Angeles.... So I'm going to skip ahead here and say Boston Celtics win in game six in LA!!!

I told you 26th of October last year and well things haven't changed :))

Stanley Cup Preview

Chicago Blackhawks has been close to the best team in Hockey, though they finished overall third in points for the regular season. For mine, it still makes them a Tier One team with Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins both knocked out by Montreal 'HalakAmania' Canadiens and the San Jose Sharks. As for the Philadelphia Flyers I have them as tier 3 teams which many tier two teams being knocked out in between. Putting them as a Tier three team in the League is actually rather generous as I don't know how they managed to get to the Stanley Cup Finals?

The Flyers have avoided both Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins thanks to Montreal Canadians. They were down 3-0 in the series against Boston and actually down 3-0 in game seven in Boston, unbelievable. With 88 regular season points, they would not have made the playoffs in the Western Conference. There's probably only three blokes I can name on the Flyers team - Mike Richards, Chris Pronger and Simon Gagne ~ I only know Defenseman Chris Pronger as he's been in the league so long. I can't help but keep looking for Eric Lindros on the ice, the last time they won the Cup was when I was born, and that lead to back to back wins.

When Miami Heat won the NBA Championship against Dallas Mavericks, with just Dwayne Wade and Shaq, I and most declared them the worse team to ever win a NBA Championship. If the Flyers somehow lift the Cup, I will be saying the same thing about Philadelphia Flyers.

Obviously great Goal Keeping is the start to any Stanley Cup winning side. And Antti Niemi in his second season is awesome. My understanding is that when he was drafted, most didn't even consider him the best Goalie coming out of Finland. Guess the Blackhawks are happy.

Though the Blackhawks have very good players, the Blackhawks don't have any super stars like Sid the Kid or Ovechkin. I think one of their best move was to put RW Dustin Byfuglien (pictured) on the main line, now in his 5th season in the league. He stills plays with that youthful enthusiasm and being on the main line playing with his teams best players, has really worked out. Big mention goes to Center Jonathan Toews and vetran Marian Hossa most recently ex-Detroit Red Wings. When Byfuglien is on the ice, the entire team really passes the eye test. Their stats may not make great reading on a box score, or you won't see him on a highlights package, but you feel safe as a Blackhawks fan when he is on the ice and know he won't let the team down. For mine he seems to always be in position, and very rarely makes you want to scream at him for doing something stupid.

Looking at the Western Conference Finals series, what also impressed me about the Chicago Blackhawks is how they dominated the Neutral Zone against San Jose Sharks and even Vancouver Canucks, and how Byfuglien would get in front of the goalie and just take up so much space. For mine, I think this is where they will dominate the Stanley Cup Finals.

The Blackhawks have won 7 straight on the road! And as Barry Melrose has said on the "Melrose Line" the reason for this is at home the United Center in Chicago gets super loud, and the players want to please the crowd with that extra pass, with that sexy goal. Whereas on the road they are happy to play a more controlled game and dump in the puck, play the tough game and get the job done. This is a more effective strategy for Chicago Blackhawks and and perhaps coach Joel Quenneville should perhaps tell the crowd to calm down and just be happy with a win any old way! After saying all this I have them lifting the cup on home ice.

Besides giving you my pick which won't surprise, it should be noted that Patrick Sharp was dumped by the Philadelphia Flyers in Dec 2005 for some bloke called Matt Ellison. Ellison played seven NHL games and languishes in Russia at the moment. The Chicago Blackhawks beat awesome teams in Vancouver Canucks & San Jose sharks, I can't say that about Phillies opponents on the way to the Cup.

Simply put, Chicago's Top Line is better, their defense and structure is better, and I like their Goalie more and they have genuine form on the board. It's been 48 years since the Blackhawks have lifted the Cup...

And to my good friend Justin Edwards who loved Chicago Blackhawks and how many a time did we watch Ed Belfour between the pipes ~ trying to save Justin's beloved team, I feel if they can lift the cup this year, look down and smile and know this one's a little bit for you.

So my tip, I see Philadephia splitting the series in Chicago, going home 1-1. Then Chicago continue their dominance on the road to win he next two in the Wachovia Center, going up 3-1 to finally wrap it up at home 4-1.

Happy punting and go the Blackhawks.

Red Sox Year, but Mariners and Braves the real Value

There's not a shadow in my mind that the best team at the start of the season is the Boston Red Sox.

In Baseball you always need to start with the pitching, and the Red Sox have a deep 6 man pitching rotation, and with 162 games ahead they might start with two pitches on the DL deliberately. But any team would love to have their pitching situation. In terms of their future beyond this season they have just signed Josh Beckett to a four year contract extension worth $68 million which means they have their four key starters John Lackey, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz signed through 2014. To me, this shows management isn't afraid to spend money, and players can go into the season knowing that if they play hard and compete they will be rewarded in Boston.

Looking at their line up, I think it matches any major league line up in terms of depth and power. I would say big Pappy David Ortiz would be their only worry and his numbers were quickly declining last year, but being the Red Sox they could easily find someone to replace him and absolutely tighten up that lineup even further. Outside Pappy their are no real weaknesses from their Front Office, Manager, Pitching and Hitting. I do question some of their fielding and especially if they get rid of or do not use Mike Lowell (who has always been one of my favourite players) but they should be more than competitive every game.

The reason I don't feel they are good value in terms of betting is that they are in the same Division as the NY Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. I am not convinced about the NY Yankees this season winning it all, but that does not mean that they won't be competitive, nor will I suggest that they can't contend after winning the World Series last year. It's just Boston look better, maybe hungrier and well I feel NY Yankees need more pitching. I would suggest that they were very fortunate to be able to go through the playoffs and the World Series on a three man picthing rotation and win it, I am not sure they can get through an entire season, with so little depth.

As for Tamp Bay, I personally don't think they will make the playoffs. But there are plenty of smart Baseball men out there like Woody Paige, who has the them winning it all (against his hometown Colorado Rockies). What this means is that the American League East is once again is the Division of Death and will be very hard to win or get out of in terms of the Wild Card spot. hence the $7.50 about the Red Sox to win it all just doesn't seem value. If you can find $9.00 I would be chasing that down.

So who did I back?

The Seattle Mariners. Last year I tipped the NY Yankees to beat the Phillies (Yes fill up). And the key pieces was getting pitching CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett but after wearning these guys out, and Red Sox and Tampa Bay improving I don't think Yankees will repeat and $4.50 best price at Betchoice is worth it. For mine the key piece for the Seattle Mariners is the Cliff Lee and a pitcher I would much prefer over Roy Halladay - however with Cliff Lee starting on the DL maybe the Phillies knew! But none the less, IF and when Cliff Lee returns to the Seattle line up, I have no doubt that he can bring enough wins to win their division and with F Hernandez, they will make a killer one two punch.

Though many other experts question their hitting, I don't think it's as much a concern as others and I am expecting their Defense to be close to the best in the American League.

Alright so who from the National League? I would love to say the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team I have followed for a very long time and Sam G, Betchoice's other MLB analyst loves what they have done with their hitting rotation. My concern is with Brandon Webb starting on the DL and also if Webb does pitch extremely well I am concerned that the Diamondbacks might trade him, so that they feel they get something for their ace.

For the same reason as last Year, I don't think Philadelphia Phillies have got worse. Though I personally prefer Cliff Lee over Roy Halladay, this trade looks pretty good and atleast they didn't loose anything. I would say that they are going through a 'golden age' of front office decision making and this is reflected in the teams performance over the last few years. As favourites for the National League, again I don't think they represent the value.

I would be backing, Atlanta Braves. Though they are from the same division which makes things tough, the Braves just seems the value ($11.00 to win the National League) with solid pitching and good hitting. Oh and I know St Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols, but without putting too much pressure on a rookie, the Atlanta Braves has Jason Heyward (pictured). This 20 year old will seriously live up to the hype. Clearly the best prospect and watching him during spring training and tracking him in the Minors he's got power, bat speed and most importantly, patience for a young hitter. He's happy to take the walk if it's presented to him.

To Summarise;

American League East : Boston Red Sox

American League Central : Detroit Tigers

American League West : Seattle Mariners

American League WildCard : LA Angels

National League East : Philadelphia Phillies

Natiional League Central : St. Louis Cardinals

National League West : Arizona Diamondbacks

National League WildCard : Atlanta Braves

American League : Seattle Mariners to beat Boston Red Sox

National League : Philadelphia to beat Atlanta Braves

World Series : Seattle to beat Phillies 4-2

Happy punting

Cavs to beat Celtics, then beat Jazz so the King gets a Ring.

When it comes to US Sports, every day of the year is exciting, for as soon as one Season winds up another sports code starts. And come the end of March you have the beauty of the end of the March Madness getting to the Elite Eight and Final Four being established, next the NBA Finals are ready to start with the NHL Playoffs leading into the Stanley Cup and with the Spring training in full swing, you know its only weeks before the MLB season starting.

But let's focus on the NBA Finals.

At the beginning of the season I tipped Boston Celtics from the East to beat the LA Lakers from the West. Let me clarify by simply saying only Boston and Cleveland Cavs are the only chance in the East 0f having a genuine chance of winning. The rest have absolutely no chance. That includes Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks.

If your a hoops fan I should not have to sell you on Lebron James' Cleveland Cavs. So Boston Celtics are looking old, but at the same time they have recently got some nice wins at Dallas Mavs and against Denver which were very surprising. So perhaps this old tag is a bit pre-mature. I mean they were absolutely flying until (late December) and then for the month of January when they went 6-8 and suddenly looked old, very quickly. I would go so far as suggesting that though young teams like Atlanta and Chicago Bulls (think last year) may give them a big scare come the playoffs, I still think they will be playing Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals. But the way the Cavs have been playing, it's like the Cavs decide to let teams play with them and then come the end of the third qtr ,they go that's enough let's turn it up a gear and a half, and like Usain Bolt they are gone, cruising to the finish.

So, Yes the Cavs are the best team in the League, but the value still seems to be the Boston Celtics at $5.00 to win the East and $9.00 to win the NBA Championship. I know it's hard to get that loss by Boston at home to New Jersey Nets out of your head, but take Boston out of play, and you might as well give the Cavs the east now.

From the West you can't go past the LA Lakers they are simply the class of the West. However, lately they have started to look very vulnerable and a bit like the Cavs, there is no value backing them. The way they accounted for the San Antonio Spurs on their home court on the 24th of March, was just too easy and they were without Andrew Bynum and the mighty Adam Morrison (jokes about Morrison, though he has more rings than LeBron & Charles Barkley).

But who is the value? Give me the Utah Jazz, I haven't liked Denver at all this season and without George Karl (Betchoice wish Karl all the best with his fight with Cancer) the Nuggets point production is down, and even if he comes back for the Finals this is not, nor has it ever been the best team in the West. The other teams I am happy to lay (risk) is the Dallas Mavericks, though they are definitely playing better than last year, I cannot put them in the elite level, and I see Utah or Lakers easily accounting for Dirk and his mates. A bit like Boston Celtics, the Spurs are looking very old very very quickly.

I admit that Utah Jazz's entire team has to be firing, whereas LA Lakers are fortunate enough to be able to win, even if a few of their guys have a bad game. Lakers can win without Kobe, they can win with bad games from two of their talls. But again the value is Utah jazz compared to Lakers price. And though with Boston you might want to back them now, and lay (or back Cleveland when they play eachother!). I've never rated Denver this season, Spurs are too old, Thunder too inexperienced, too many injuries for Portland, Dallas though deadly I'd much prefer to take Utah or Lakers. And though Phoenix Suns are great to watch and can win in the regular season, defense wins championships.

Before giving you my final word, George Karl is a good illustration on the effect of a coach. Since he has left (18th of Feb, 2010) the the team has't really missed a beat going 36-18 or o.666 to 12-7 or 0.631 but look at Denver's point production and based upon the teams they are playing it's been a lot lot lower. This is based upon the estimated Total for Denver pre-game by Vegas, and their actual total. If you think, shouldn't we then back the unders, No - 'cos their defense is letting in too many points as well.

But what I really want to mention here is the final plays coaches draw up for that final shot. It's not about whether the shot makes it or not, it's about whether the right player gets the right opportunity and even if that right player doesn't have the shot, what's his option A or option B? This week we had Oklahoma City Thunder Kevin Durant have an opportunity to tie the game against the San Antonio Spurs, but their lack of experience and coaching meant that the double team on Durant was enough to beat down on the Thunder. No shot, no second option no third option.

The key to Hoops games is always that last four to two minutes of the game. It shows which players a coach likes. Even when a player is "hot" most coaches will put on the floor their go-to-guys in those final minutes. Going back to George Karl, even if you were coaching Michael Jordan you still need to draw up a play, have a strategy, and if you can't get MJ that final shot, make sure the other players are not ball watching or crowding his space so he can have options. Watching Denver without George Karl, they look totally disorientated, they don't have any structure and in any close game they are relying on pure athletic ability, rather than coaching. Watching them you'll see them run a play, and when it works they will run it about 5 times in a row as it worked before - no mixing it up and the defense can easily adjust and their actual shots are not 'good shots'. Those finals shots are created by an individual off the dribble, rather than ball moevement or team play.

Alright in a nut shell. Cleveland Cavs to beat the Celtics in the East 4-1 and Utah Jazz to surprise the Lakers in the West 4-2. Then the Cavs easily account for the Jazz 4-1. Trade in and out of Boston, and maybe just back the Jazz to win the West.