There's not a shadow in my mind that the best team at the start of the season is the Boston Red Sox.
In Baseball you always need to start with the pitching, and the Red Sox have a deep 6 man pitching rotation, and with 162 games ahead they might start with two pitches on the DL deliberately. But any team would love to have their pitching situation. In terms of their future beyond this season they have just signed Josh Beckett to a four year contract extension worth $68 million which means they have their four key starters John Lackey, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz signed through 2014. To me, this shows management isn't afraid to spend money, and players can go into the season knowing that if they play hard and compete they will be rewarded in Boston.
Looking at their line up, I think it matches any major league line up in terms of depth and power. I would say big Pappy David Ortiz would be their only worry and his numbers were quickly declining last year, but being the Red Sox they could easily find someone to replace him and absolutely tighten up that lineup even further. Outside Pappy their are no real weaknesses from their Front Office, Manager, Pitching and Hitting. I do question some of their fielding and especially if they get rid of or do not use Mike Lowell (who has always been one of my favourite players) but they should be more than competitive every game.
The reason I don't feel they are good value in terms of betting is that they are in the same Division as the NY Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. I am not convinced about the NY Yankees this season winning it all, but that does not mean that they won't be competitive, nor will I suggest that they can't contend after winning the World Series last year. It's just Boston look better, maybe hungrier and well I feel NY Yankees need more pitching. I would suggest that they were very fortunate to be able to go through the playoffs and the World Series on a three man picthing rotation and win it, I am not sure they can get through an entire season, with so little depth.
As for Tamp Bay, I personally don't think they will make the playoffs. But there are plenty of smart Baseball men out there like Woody Paige, who has the them winning it all (against his hometown Colorado Rockies). What this means is that the American League East is once again is the Division of Death and will be very hard to win or get out of in terms of the Wild Card spot. hence the $7.50 about the Red Sox to win it all just doesn't seem value. If you can find $9.00 I would be chasing that down.
So who did I back?
The Seattle Mariners. Last year I tipped the NY Yankees to beat the Phillies (Yes fill up). And the key pieces was getting pitching CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett but after wearning these guys out, and Red Sox and Tampa Bay improving I don't think Yankees will repeat and $4.50 best price at Betchoice is worth it. For mine the key piece for the Seattle Mariners is the Cliff Lee and a pitcher I would much prefer over Roy Halladay - however with Cliff Lee starting on the DL maybe the Phillies knew! But none the less, IF and when Cliff Lee returns to the Seattle line up, I have no doubt that he can bring enough wins to win their division and with F Hernandez, they will make a killer one two punch.
Though many other experts question their hitting, I don't think it's as much a concern as others and I am expecting their Defense to be close to the best in the American League.
Alright so who from the National League? I would love to say the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team I have followed for a very long time and Sam G, Betchoice's other MLB analyst loves what they have done with their hitting rotation. My concern is with Brandon Webb starting on the DL and also if Webb does pitch extremely well I am concerned that the Diamondbacks might trade him, so that they feel they get something for their ace.
For the same reason as last Year, I don't think Philadelphia Phillies have got worse. Though I personally prefer Cliff Lee over Roy Halladay, this trade looks pretty good and atleast they didn't loose anything. I would say that they are going through a 'golden age' of front office decision making and this is reflected in the teams performance over the last few years. As favourites for the National League, again I don't think they represent the value.
I would be backing, Atlanta Braves. Though they are from the same division which makes things tough, the Braves just seems the value ($11.00 to win the National League) with solid pitching and good hitting. Oh and I know St Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols, but without putting too much pressure on a rookie, the Atlanta Braves has Jason Heyward (pictured). This 20 year old will seriously live up to the hype. Clearly the best prospect and watching him during spring training and tracking him in the Minors he's got power, bat speed and most importantly, patience for a young hitter. He's happy to take the walk if it's presented to him.
To Summarise;
American League East : Boston Red Sox
American League Central : Detroit Tigers
American League West : Seattle Mariners
American League WildCard : LA Angels
National League East : Philadelphia Phillies
Natiional League Central : St. Louis Cardinals
National League West : Arizona Diamondbacks
National League WildCard : Atlanta Braves
American League : Seattle Mariners to beat Boston Red Sox
National League : Philadelphia to beat Atlanta Braves
World Series : Seattle to beat Phillies 4-2
Happy punting
