The American League playoff teams seems to be set, with only Boston Red Sox needing to go something like 11-4 and have either Tampa Bay or NY Yankees go 6-8 roughly to have any chance of making the playoffs. But the way they are playing, I would suggest it’s very unlikely. And I would say it’s less likely that Boston starts wining, than NY Yankee or Rays loosing.
Now before I break down who will win the American League. There are people talking about NY Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays “tanking” so they play Minnesota (currently 89 wins), rather than Texas Rangers (83) but this seems crazy to me. First of all, you want home field advantage, but even more importantly than that if you have the better record in the league, you have can choose the long series or the short series. In other words, will your 5 game playoff series be played over 6 or 7 days approx. If you recall from last year this was extremely significant as the NY Yankees got away with using a three man pitching rotation, as they choose the long series. They were also helped that the World Series is stretched out for tv reasons.
Okay going to the National League before I finalise my picks..
I still think the Wild Card slot will come from Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies (NL East). Though they are about to play each other in an important series. The National League West has three teams in the race, but will end up beating up on each other, and there are not enough “wins” available in the NL West for a team to come through and get the wild card. The top team in the West San Francisco Giants currently trails the Braves by 2, 86-84 wins.
Obviously in the NL Central I don’t give the St Louis Cardinals a chance, and concede the Division to Cincinnati Reds. Just on this division, if you recall the series that Cincinnati played against the St Louis Cardinals in August where St Louis swept the Cincinnati Reds and there was this big fight? Like so many “analysts” I thought that the St Louis Cardinals would just go out with it, and the Cincinnati Reds would fall in a heap. Instead, after being at the top of the Division it was the St Louis Cardinals who collapsed and it was the Cincinnati Reds who managed to put the game behind them and kick on! Whatever happened to Momentum???
From the National League West, I want San Diego Padres. I backed them at $6.50 to win the division, they got out to a 6 game lead, and now are behind by ½ game at the time of writing. Sadly I don’t think that their pitching will get them over the line. And I feel that it San Francisco has the pitching and just enough hitting to get them home. Pitcher Tim Lincecum is really the difference maker in this team, when he was slumping it seemed the whole team was slumping. When he sorted out his mechanics, it seemed like the whole franchise sorted everything out and have been kicking on. There was an initial concern for Giant fans when during the time the San Diego Padres lost 10 in a row and the San Francisco Giants only went 3-7 or 4-6 in that span themselves. But now that they lead and have their destiny in their own hands, I think that the San Francisco will win the division.
Which leads to my tips..
As much as I would love to say the Atlanta Braves with the National League ~ team I tipped at the beginning of the season to win the National League. I see the Phillies winning the National League. Since they are from the same Division they cannot play each other in the first round of the playoffs. I see both teams winning their opening round, against Cincinnati and San Francisco Giants (or anyone else from the NL West). With the Phillies winning the National League. It’s not that Atlanta is not without a hope. Just that the Phillies experience, pitching in Roy Halladay and Oswalt one two, and all their injured players coming back.. Should be simply too good. The home field advantage should help too.
From the American League, I am going to say Texas beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS. It’s not that I don’t rate the Yankees. Just that I don’t think when it matters, the Yankees have the pitching. Sure CC Sabathia is getting the job done. But I really feel that Tampa Bay and Texas Rangers are deeper and even more hungrier than the World Series Champion Yankees. As you can tell I don’t give much chop to Minnesota Twins. The fact they have no Ace, like the other three teams – and really not a batting order to fear, I see them easily being accounted for by Tampa Bay or NY Yankees who will play them in the first round.
Of the Rays and Texas, give me the Texas Rangers. The reason I tipped the Seattle Mariners was that they had Cliff Lee, and now that they traded him to Texas Rangers, I am going to go with the strength and tip the Texas Rangers as my World Series Champions.
Can I just point out that pitching is supposed to win Championships? When Seattle had Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, who has Cy Young numbers (even better than CC Sabathia, except wins) how on earth could they be this bad!?!? I understand you still have to hit the ball. But really, two of the best pitchers in the League and you have a .383 record? In Felix Hernandez’s ten losses, Seattle have given him a total of ten runs in support! Yes, average of one run per game.
As for the World Series it has to be the Texas Rangers. Though the pitching rotation of the Phillies starts with Halladay and they have home field advantage in the World Series. I think Cliff Lee beats R Halladay in both their matchups and Oswalt is “National League” good, but I like everything I see from the Texas Rangers lineup and should be able to out hit the Phillies. Pitcher C Wilson for Texas is a very good number two.
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