NBA Observations in the shortened Season

With a little over half of the NBA season, and the ALL star Game played and won by the West (thanks to Wade missing a simple catch and lay-up and LeBron not taking the last shot) it’s time to take stock and see how my predictions and how the teams are doing in general.

In the East I really only see two teams having a chance of winning the Conference, and ‘spoiller alert’ I will suggest that the winner of the East will win the NBA Championship. Those two teams are the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat who are playing the most brilliant Basketball I have seen for a while. With all the Lin-sanity going on in New York, it has done the Miami Heat a huge favor, by drawing plenty of attention away from the Heat. ESPN don’t have a “Heat Index” like last year and any pressure that they had last year, seems to be lifted and the Heat can do their own thing, which is to play great defense and a much better team overall game then last year. Lebron is still desperate to be liked, so not being the Iron Shiek or King Kong Bundy, in other words the Villian of the NBA, means he is playing much better . Staying on the Heat I think it has everything to do with playing more as a team, and bench players like Norris Cole & Udonis Haslem are playing some of their best basketball. Including Shane Battier they could easily be starters elsewhere in the league.

Though the Chicago Bulls are playing winning Basketball without Derrick Rose, they will no doubt need him for the Playoffs and especially if they want to have any chance of getting past the Heat and winning the NBA Championship. In this shortened season, which is significant to the Bulls not because it’s only 66 games, but the number of games played in a row and the number of games cramped per week! With Derrick Rose already being rested due to back issues, if I was running the Bulls I would keep him sidelined for as long as it takes. If that means 88% of the regular season and bringing him back for the last few games before the playoffs, so be it. They can beat most of the teams in the East without Rose, so why not. They currently have a 5 game lead over Orlando who are third in the East, so really there’s no pressure on him playing. Even if Rose does play, I would keep his minutes to under 40mins nearly every game.

Why no other team, has any chance of winning the East?
Besides being inferior teams with a lot less ability. They will also have to beat the Bulls and Miami in their own houses, and possibly if they have any juice left, try and win the NBA Finals against the Western representative.

The only caveat I should add to this, is that my opinion may change if one of the Eastern teams get Dwight Howard and don’t have to give up too much. For the record I don’t believe this will happen. If Howard leaves Orlando – I feel he will go to a Western Conference team – more on that later.

So let me talk a little bit about Dwight Howard
First of all I want to address the question, if I was the LA Clippers, would I trade Dwight Howard for Blake Griffin? To put it simply, on a single 1-for-1 trade, Hell yes. I appreciate that Griffin means so much to the LA Clippers, and it would mean a lot for this franchise to give up a young Centre on the way up. But consider it this way, if I was to re-draft the entire league from scratch. So you could pick any player you like from the entire 2012 NBA … Who would I start with? Dwight Howard (and then LeBron James), I still feel the big man is the best player to build a franchise around and as such, if I could grab him for any player in the league – I would be trading for Dwight Howard.

In terms of where I think he will land. Let’s start with Shaq’s comments, in saying Dwight Howard should do the right thing and stay in Orlando. I find this hypocritical, as when Shaq was in the exact same situation he bailed on the Orlando Magic, for pretty much all the same reasons as Dwight Howard may be leaving.

Since the Magic are coming 3rd in the East, I am sure that they feel that they could make a run in the playoffs and effectively keep Howard, by promising him that they will get the right pieces in the offseason. Sadly, they haven’t learnt from their Shaq experience or from LeBron taking his talents to South Beach, at the end of this season I see him giving up a bit of cash and probably moving to the Dallas Mavericks. Leaving as a free agant, and Orlando Magic like the Cavs getting absolutely nothing in return.

I don’t see him in LA next to Kobe, or the Clippers making the Griffin move, though I reckon Howard would love to do it. This leaves him to go to New Jersey Nets with Deron Wiliams, or my formal guess the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas owner Mark Cuban doesn’t mind spending money and go over the luxury tax – though Dirk is the man in Dallas, I think Howard wants rings more than the limelight. Though Texas might not be the bright lights of Hollywood or New York, first comes the rings, then comes the power, then comes the light.

MVP Lebron James by daylight – he’s $1.55 at Betchoice and only because it can become a bit of a popularity contest, I am not suggest not to back him, if you like that price. But if any other player was playing at his level, winning and even the stats are matching the “eye test” he would be $1.03 but being LeBron, he’s $1.55. ESPN’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating) had him as high as 34.0, currently 32.4. Wilt Chamberlain averaged 31.84 for the 62-63 season and Jordon 31.71 for the 87-88 season to put it in context. If he finishes with a PER of over 30.0 he will be the only player to finish two seasons in a row with a plus 30.0 PER.

Moving to the West… my previous blog post about the LA Lakers still stands. No ball movement, no team work, Kobe is carrying them and the loss of Lamar Odom is massive. New coach can’t get anything out of Metta World Peace and Derek Fisher is too old to defend anyone.
I still like my Dallas Mavericks pick and again like my previous blog post about the Oklahoma City Thunder, this still stands. Westbrook is the key and since I don’t feel he’s a team player and of the same quality as Durant or an elite NBA Star, I’m going to suggest that this team because of it’s lack of depth (only goes three deep) and my disrespect for Westbrook, can’t win the West.
The team I think have the best chance are the San Antonio Spurs. Outside of their 12 game winning streak at the moment (I don’t count their loss to Portland when Popovic rested Tim Duncan & Tony Parker, which they lost by 40). I really feel that their reasonable price is not being taken by the punters, as the punters still have last years playoff loss to Memphis in their minds. Last year the No.1 ranked Spurs lost to the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs , though the Spurs where slightly banged up last year, this year they are absolutely flying and doing this without Manu Ginobili who will be back for the playoffs no doubt. I’ve always found that the Spurs are never a well backed team, even when where winning Championships and making Finals from 2003 to 2007. I think it’s because of their so called boring play and Tim Duncan, won’t walk around with a tiny backpack or wear Steve Urkel glasses. But if you asked me who is the best team in the West, give me the San Antonio Spurs.

Finals Miami Heat beats the Chicago Bulls, and the Dallas Mavericks beat the San Antonio Spurs in the West. Whilst the Miami Heat beat the Mavericks for revenge in the Championship Finals 4-1.

NBA Future Projections

With most teams playing about 19 games , I have had a chance to have a good look at what’s going on in this shortened 66 Game season (normally 82 games) . Besides the extremely bad officiating who can't keep up with the play, and struggle more than the players on the back-to-back-to-back nights. Oh by the way, teams playing the third game of the back-to-back-to-back are 8-5 last time I did the stats, so it doesn't seem like it's effecting them.

I’ll open by saying that I liked the Dallas Mavericks to repeat, before the season started and still do. Though I feel JJ Barea is a massive loss (moved to Timberwolves) the loss of Tyson Chandler and picking up Lamar Odom is a huge huge upgrade considering how Dallas run their offense with Dirk, and like Orlando Magic (Howard) they run their defense towards their Centre. Now with Odom, they can rotate Odom and Dirk on switches in the middle and both can get out to the perimeter. Though the Mavs are 11-8 at the moment, I still see them winning the West and at least being in the NBA Championship Series.

Clearly their main and only threat are the Oklahoma City Thunder. Besides their loss to the Wizards, they have been just getting the job done and are the clear front runners in the West. Two things worry me about the Thunder. As the likes of Dirk rest three Games, Rose sits a week and during the season, but Westbrook and Durant may feel they need to bring it every game, and not look after their body as much as the older experienced players. As such, come the playoffs can they be fully fit and can their body match the intensity of the playoff. Now with Westbrook getting a $80 million extension for five years, there’s always an issue of motivation. But my biggest issue with this team is what does Westbrook really want to be? I feel at times he doesn’t correctly choose between being a true Point guard or a shooting guard. Often it’s like give it to Durant, let him do his thing and then since that’s no working kick it back to Westbrook, who just kicks it to another player standing still or shoot. There doesn’t seem to be that Chris Paul or Steve Nash who both can take the number of required shots, but before shooting they are always pass first - passing to a player in a better situation, rather than just dump off and shoot it. I think Westbrook can be worth the money, and has the athleticism to overcome his decision making. But it’s not yet elite for me, and the reason why they can’t win the West or an NBA Championship.

Staying in the West, I see Denver Nuggets as having a great regular season team with plenty of roster depth. But I wouldn’t be backing them in the playoffs, especially in those last 2 minutes of any close game. I have totally written off the LA Lakers, and though Kobe is playing brilliantly. I doubt he’ll be able to keep it up, especially with a lingering injury to his shooting hand. Even with him playing well, they have no ball movement and solely rely on Kobe doing his thing, and the rest of his team making pull up jumpers. Jason Kapono is used to replace Kobe, just a slight drop off their. I’m sure if Popovic (Spurs coach) was in charge he would be resting Kobe, but with Mike Brown taking over the Lakers, he knows Los Angeles want victories and plenty of them now! Kobe is also taking the most number of long two’s considered the worse shot in the game. A bad two is 10-15 and 16-23 feet away from the basket, Kobe takes the most of these shots, approx 9 per game – from here you are settling for pull up jumpers and illustrates that Kobe can’t drive to the hoop anymore, and no ball movement to give Kobe or his fellow players any good inside penetration. This is 2 more than the next player. I appreciate Kobe takes more shots than most, but these bad two’s aren’t high percentage shots. I’ll give you one guess which team has the player in the top 26 attempts for bad two’s in the league and the lowest percentage … Wizards! Still on the Lakers I’ll also add that Lamar Odom was a key piece in the Lakers machine, on and off the court and every Laker player was shocked when he was released and went to the defending Champions.

In the East it truly is a two horse race with the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls being the only two teams worth considering. The Bulls have picked up Richard Hamilton from Detroit, but unfortunately have lost Luol Deng for the season and their recent lost to the Indiana Pacers on Jan 25^th, had everything to do with Deng missing. He’s a true Power Forward and a great lockdown player on the defensive end. Taj Gibson was also out, but Deng is a massive loss. The key obviously is Derrick Rose, but for mine it’s not about whether he plays well, just as long as coach Tom Thibodeau knows when to rest him, especially just before the playoffs.

Miami Heat should simply win the East hands down. At the moment Dwayne Wade is injured and they have gone 8-1 without him. To put it simply, LeBron James might be better without Dwayne Wade, as he goes 20-10 without breaking a sweat. But the Miami Heat as a team aren’t better without Dwayne Wade. Though I like LeBron James better as a complete player, I would prefer Wade taking my final shot. Over this Wade-less stretch Bosh is averaging 26.7 points on 62.8% shouting.

Keep eye out till the 15th of March, which is the trade deadline.

So give me Dallas Mavericks over the Miami Heat again in the Final