With most teams playing about 19 games , I have had a chance to have a good look at what’s going on in this shortened 66 Game season (normally 82 games) . Besides the extremely bad officiating who can't keep up with the play, and struggle more than the players on the back-to-back-to-back nights. Oh by the way, teams playing the third game of the back-to-back-to-back are 8-5 last time I did the stats, so it doesn't seem like it's effecting them.
I’ll open by saying that I liked the Dallas Mavericks to repeat, before the season started and still do. Though I feel JJ Barea is a massive loss (moved to Timberwolves) the loss of Tyson Chandler and picking up Lamar Odom is a huge huge upgrade considering how Dallas run their offense with Dirk, and like Orlando Magic (Howard) they run their defense towards their Centre. Now with Odom, they can rotate Odom and Dirk on switches in the middle and both can get out to the perimeter. Though the Mavs are 11-8 at the moment, I still see them winning the West and at least being in the NBA Championship Series.
Clearly their main and only threat are the Oklahoma City Thunder. Besides their loss to the Wizards, they have been just getting the job done and are the clear front runners in the West. Two things worry me about the Thunder. As the likes of Dirk rest three Games, Rose sits a week and during the season, but Westbrook and Durant may feel they need to bring it every game, and not look after their body as much as the older experienced players. As such, come the playoffs can they be fully fit and can their body match the intensity of the playoff. Now with Westbrook getting a $80 million extension for five years, there’s always an issue of motivation. But my biggest issue with this team is what does Westbrook really want to be? I feel at times he doesn’t correctly choose between being a true Point guard or a shooting guard. Often it’s like give it to Durant, let him do his thing and then since that’s no working kick it back to Westbrook, who just kicks it to another player standing still or shoot. There doesn’t seem to be that Chris Paul or Steve Nash who both can take the number of required shots, but before shooting they are always pass first - passing to a player in a better situation, rather than just dump off and shoot it. I think Westbrook can be worth the money, and has the athleticism to overcome his decision making. But it’s not yet elite for me, and the reason why they can’t win the West or an NBA Championship.
Staying in the West, I see Denver Nuggets as having a great regular season team with plenty of roster depth. But I wouldn’t be backing them in the playoffs, especially in those last 2 minutes of any close game. I have totally written off the LA Lakers, and though Kobe is playing brilliantly. I doubt he’ll be able to keep it up, especially with a lingering injury to his shooting hand. Even with him playing well, they have no ball movement and solely rely on Kobe doing his thing, and the rest of his team making pull up jumpers. Jason Kapono is used to replace Kobe, just a slight drop off their. I’m sure if Popovic (Spurs coach) was in charge he would be resting Kobe, but with Mike Brown taking over the Lakers, he knows Los Angeles want victories and plenty of them now! Kobe is also taking the most number of long two’s considered the worse shot in the game. A bad two is 10-15 and 16-23 feet away from the basket, Kobe takes the most of these shots, approx 9 per game – from here you are settling for pull up jumpers and illustrates that Kobe can’t drive to the hoop anymore, and no ball movement to give Kobe or his fellow players any good inside penetration. This is 2 more than the next player. I appreciate Kobe takes more shots than most, but these bad two’s aren’t high percentage shots. I’ll give you one guess which team has the player in the top 26 attempts for bad two’s in the league and the lowest percentage … Wizards! Still on the Lakers I’ll also add that Lamar Odom was a key piece in the Lakers machine, on and off the court and every Laker player was shocked when he was released and went to the defending Champions.
In the East it truly is a two horse race with the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls being the only two teams worth considering. The Bulls have picked up Richard Hamilton from Detroit, but unfortunately have lost Luol Deng for the season and their recent lost to the Indiana Pacers on Jan 25th, had everything to do with Deng missing. He’s a true Power Forward and a great lockdown player on the defensive end. Taj Gibson was also out, but Deng is a massive loss. The key obviously is Derrick Rose, but for mine it’s not about whether he plays well, just as long as coach Tom Thibodeau knows when to rest him, especially just before the playoffs.
Miami Heat should simply win the East hands down. At the moment Dwayne Wade is injured and they have gone 8-1 without him. To put it simply, LeBron James might be better without Dwayne Wade, as he goes 20-10 without breaking a sweat. But the Miami Heat as a team aren’t better without Dwayne Wade. Though I like LeBron James better as a complete player, I would prefer Wade taking my final shot. Over this Wade-less stretch Bosh is averaging 26.7 points on 62.8% shouting.
Keep eye out till the 15th of March, which is the trade deadline.
So give me Dallas Mavericks over the Miami Heat again in the Final
