So here’s my thoughts
Baltimore v Denver
Don’t know if you remember but this was my AFC Championship
game at the beginning of the season, when we spoke. I really feel Baltimore
have turned a corner. And with Ray Lewis retiring, I thought it would be enough
to give them one more great game. But the fact that Denver are at home, well
rested and are playing well it should be enough to lift them over the Ravens. I
also prefer Denver, as though I have backed both teams, at least I know Denver
will have home field advantage in the AFC title game. My line was more around -7.0 rather than the -9½ around.
Green Bay v San Francisco 49ers
If Alex Smith was starting for San Francisco 49ers I think
they would have a better chance than with Colin Kaepernick. I appreciate that
he’s been playing well but this is the second round of the playoffs and Alex
Smith is ready for this pressure, proven and though Kaepernick can
stretch the field and move in the pocket better. I have Green Bay winning
this and actually winning comfortably. I’ll admit that I backed the Packers
after they were going through a tough patch and the price got out (and Dallas
were heading in the wrong direction. Dallas were my NFC pick) but I still they
are hitting form at the right time, and got all their players back healthy at
the right time. Green Bay made Minnesota look like deer in headlights last week
– including Petterson. I believe they do the same to Kaepernick and if San Fran
get behind and he has to throw the ball – no hope.
Seattle Seahawks v Atlanta Falcons
One word "pressure"! All the pressure is on Atlanta in this
game. How often do you see them make the playoffs and fail? Matty Ice has been
near perfect at home during the regular season (3 loses lifetime). But in the
playoffs, it’s the same old story. Seattle are using house money after winning
away from home, which no-one gave them a chance of doing, well actually they
were -2½ favs in Washington last week so someone gave them a hope. Pete Carroll
has this team playing loose in a good way! High fiving here and there, and even
when they were down by 14 he never panicked against Washington and this showed
on the field as well. Atlanta’s record suggests they are the best team in the
NFC – I very much doubt that.
Seattle defense is flying and they have proven they can take
it on the road as well. Matt Ryan has a “playoff monkey” on his back, it
will turn into a gorilla if they are trailing at halftime. If they lose this
game it will be King Kong come next season.
Houston v New England
When I was watching the Houston v Cincinnati game last week,
I kept thinking whoever plays the winner of this game will crush them by 50.
But this is the NFL and though the simple answer is New England Patriots to
cover the -9½ I am taking a deep breathe and can’t even have the Pats as my
best bet anymore. Not sure I won’t take the Texans with the +9½ start?
I remember when the Pats beat the NY Jets (45-3) in week 13
of the regular season, about two season ago? A few weeks later, the NY Jets
which looked like they should be sent out to retire and no-one gave them a
hope! Well they beat the Pats (28-21) in the playoffs to make the AFC Championship
game (but lost to Pittsburgh 24-19). I think this will be a very close
game and I am not convinced that the best side to back is the Pats -9½. Like
Baltimore, Houston have hobbled into the playoffs but they are still here, so
what can you say. I often say – back the better team, which would be the
Patriots. Last time they played each other the Pats opened -4½ pt favourites
and won 42-14 but does that mean they are -9½ favourites now?
My gut says take the plus points, but my eyes said back the
Patriots to win by 50! If you gave me $100 and I must bet on this game, give me
the over 47½ total points.
BCS Championship Game…
Our other mate asked me for a tip and I said I can’t stop looking at
the Alabama side, -9½ was a lot but at the same time I felt Notre Dame never
really beat anyone. ND didn’t have a signature win. Only doubt was that Alabama
could have easily had three losses rather than one. Still had a few dollars on the
Alabama. How about that Aussie kid, Jesse Williams!! NFL bound, good on him. He
did pull up towards the end, hope he’s not injured.
