Supebowl XLVIII Preview

The Opener (opening price)

Let’s start with the opening line. In this case the first bookies I saw put out a prices, saw Denver Broncos slight favourites at $1.83 (-120) or take your pick (Pick’em). So all the early money was on Denver Broncos. 

Before I go on here, let me outline one very important fact;

Professional punters bet numbers (wiseguys)

vs

Mug punters bet teams (squares).

When mug punters talk about backing a team, they would say Denver Broncos are going to win and it would not matter what price the bookies put up, they’ll back the Broncos. If the opening line was minus 4½ making them about $1.50 to win, the mug punter would probably have more confidence and probably bet more. The shorter the better.

However the professional punter and the one who prefers to bet into opening lines and even two weeks before the event. These professionals bet numbers, not teams. They should show a profit not team loyalty! So when the line went up pick’em their ratings had Denver as value at $1.83 and probably had Denver at -2½. They see the value not the team’s name!

After a while the line moved to -2½ and you could say “The steam play was on the Denver Broncos” and “the wise guys like the Denver Broncos” but this is just half the story. The “wise guys like the Denver Broncos at Pick’em, -1.0 to -2.0.” Once they got to -3.0 the value was now on the Seattle Seahawks at +3.0 and the Pros started to do some buyback on Seattle Seahawks at the +3.0. Leaving the number at -2½ and the end of the first day’s trade.

Now let’s say the line opened at -4½ Denver just as an example. Well then all the wiseguys and pros, would have made Seattle their steam play or value bet and backed Seattle Seahawks. No doubt moving the line to +2½ Seahawks. From this angle (or opener) people could say, “All the pros love Seattle Seahawks in the Superbowl” which is not the complete picture! They have Seattle at +2½ and anything over that is value, anything under that, they would suggest to back the other side.

Again different from the Seahawk fan or mug punter, if the line went up +4½ Seattle or Pick’em at $1.97, they have already made up their mind and would have backed Seattle at any price. Value is not important. 

Some numbers

·        Using Pregame.com’s Sportsbook Spy as I write, there has been over 27,000 bets on the game (Win, Line and Total combined). With 73% of action on Denver at around -2.0, 58% on the Denver Win and 66% on the Unders.

·         An estimated $10 Billion (USD) is projected to be bet on Super Bowl XLVIII worldwide.

·         Over half of adult Americans, are expected to have some money at risk on the game. Less than 1% of the total amount bet is expected to be wagered legally in Nevada.

·         By all projections this Superbowl will be the biggest bet Super Bowl by hold ever.

·         Most bookies had Denver favourites at the beginning of the season at $6.50, whilst Seattle was fourth pick at about $13.00.

·         There is a 30% of snow during the Superbowl.

My tip

Everyone wants to talk about Seattle Defense, which is fair enough. This fact suggests that Russell Wilson is a little over rated and lucky to be on a team with such great defense, I agree.

But in agreeing that the Seattle Defense is the best in the league, statistically and generally. Clearly the Denver Broncos offense is the best, not just in the league, not just this year, but close to the best offense ever! I appreciate the rules have changed to suit the offense side of the ball, but in saying that, it was the two best defenses which played out the NFC Championship game last week. The NFL clearly hasn’t  ruled out defence completely.

But in regards to suggesting which one is better than the NFL baseline, I strongly feel that Denver’s offense is better than the norm, compared to Seattle’s Defence against the norm! This year Peyton Manning has set the NFL record for passing yards 5,477 and most passing touchdowns in a season at 55! Not to mention he did this in a division which had both the two wild card spots come from the AFC West (Kansas City and San Diego) so he wasn’t doing this against some ‘Sister’s of the Poor’ NFL team.

Clearly the predicted snowy weather will suit the defense, thus suiting Seattle. I know Manning’s record is 0-4 in the playoffs, if the temperature is less than 5c (40 Fahrenheit) and the Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch will love the conditions! 

The other thing to note with weather is that generally the totals come down, which makes sense. If anything, this may bring the defenses closer together, helping both defenses. If it was 9-0 final score, I would back the Broncos & Manning to get within field position three times, more than Wilson and his Seahawks.

Being on a neutral field, I feel disadvantages Seattle Seahawks more, than any disadvantage to Denver Broncos. Sure Mile High stadium is a huge advantage for Denver, but the 11^th Man in Seattle is even a bigger deal which they can’t take away on the road. CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA is the only field worth -4½ points in my ratings. Normally if two teams of equal ability or ratings played each other, the home team would be -3.0, as that’s how much home field is worth in the NFL. Saints get -3½ but everyone else at home, is pretty much -3.0. So if you take Seattle out of their comfort zone, take away the 11^th man, it only makes sense that they feel it far more than the Denver Broncos.

So my tip the Denver Broncos to win Superbowl!

I personally backed the New Orleans Saints before the season at $26, then Denver Broncos after about week one at around $5 and took plenty on San Francisco at $18 in about week 13. I am in a position where I could comfortably hedge my position by backing Seattle at $2.10 but I am happy to hold my position on the Denver Broncos.

Final Score Denver Broncos 30-17 

My interview with Merv Hughes for Unibet

As CRM for Unibet Australia, I got to sit down with cricket legend Merv Hughes to get his take on upcoming Ashes Series. Here's my interview (which remains the property of Unibet).

Let’s start with the all-important question. Who will win and what’s the series score?

“I hope Australia, I think Australia can win. It will definitely be a close one. Australia is travelling a lot better than what is portrayed in the media. Though England will be tough, I have to say that are not as flash as everyone thinks they are. A tight one that is either 3-2 or 2-1.”

England 3-2 is $17 or 2-1 is $ 8.00

Australia 3-2 is $26.00 or 2-1 $15.00

 Who are the players to Watch?

“Tasmanian Jackson Bird for starters. He could be a real surprise packet for the Aussies and a real wildcard. Nathan Lyon is also crucial to Australia, Nathan must do well to give Australia any chance of winning the series. Expect Nathan to be looking at getting 20+ wickets to give Australia any chance of winning.

On the batting side Chris Rogers will be crucial, especially after Warner’s indiscretion. The Ashes could come down to Australia’s Top 4 vs England’s Top 4, it’s that plain and simple.”

 Any advice for the Aussies?

“Play hard and win.

Win the defining moments.

Take the half chances.

Runs can come if they are patient.

Thoughtful cricket.

These aren’t clichés but genuine pieces of advice I would be telling the players. So often a test match comes down to a few defining moments, the better team will take those minute chances. Play thoughtful cricket, which may mean being patient and taking all half chances.”

What’s your opinion of the new Aussie coach?

“First of all, I was very surprised on releasing Mickey Arthur. It could not have been an easy decision to cut Mickey who still had such a long time left on his contract.

I think Darren Lehmann will do well. He has a real tough competitive streak. He may look laid back in the media,  sometimes looked like a very easy going bloke. But knowing him, he has a will to win and a desire to see Australian cricket back on top.”

Though you’re a bowler. We still want your take on the Australian openers?

“I have no real issue with Chris Rogers and Shane Watson opening. Both don’t mind the ball coming on to them, so no problems having them in the lead off position. As I mentioned before, the Ashes will come down to our top 4 vs their top 4. As such, I think it’s important to have Michael Clarke at four. They have had him at 5 and when Australia were struggling, moved him up to 3rd spot. But I think he’s best at four.”

Unibet has Michael Clarke at $6.50 to score the most runs in the Ashes overall and $2.75 for top Aussie run scorer.

Shane Watson Myth or Legend?

“Shane has been up and down for a while now. With the biggest issue being his body, rather than skill set or mental tenacity. He’s definitely suited to opening as I mentioned before, he really likes the ball coming on to him.

As for a bowler, this is where his body comes into question and the rigors of bowling, as well as batting and bowling. Doing both means Watson is doing it tougher than he should. I’m not saying just stick to batting, rather, let me sit on the fence for the next two and a half months and ask me again later. This very Ashes tour could help define Shane Watson’s cricket legacy.”

Could you finish up with an Ashes Story for us Merv?

“For me the Ashes will always hold a special place in my career and the very fortunes of Australian cricket. It was the 86-87 Ashes which we hosted which really turned around Australian cricket for me and the group of players I was honoured to call team mates. In 1986-87 England came to Australia, and we lost in Melbourne. We were belted in just 3 days. Allan Border was always a fierce competitor and always hated losing as we all did, but as captain he was irate. After that loss in Melbourne Allan took a stand and you could say he drew a line in the sand to say that’s it. You could see an edge build up in him and he became even stronger as a leader. Border became ruthless and really took no prisoners.

I hope Australia 2013 draw upon that ruthlessness and desire to win. Australia needs to put England under pressure and when they do, take all those half chances.”

Australia went on to win the 5th Test by 55 runs. Australia’s Test team then won against New Zealand, Drew against England and won against Sri Lanka.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview

Here's a letter I shared with a fellow NFL buddy...

So here’s my thoughts

Baltimore v Denver

Don’t know if you remember but this was my AFC Championship game at the beginning of the season, when we spoke. I really feel Baltimore have turned a corner. And with Ray Lewis retiring, I thought it would be enough to give them one more great game. But the fact that Denver are at home, well rested and are playing well it should be enough to lift them over the Ravens. I also prefer Denver, as though I have backed both teams, at least I know Denver will have home field advantage in the AFC title game. My line was more around -7.0 rather than the -9½ around.

Green Bay v San Francisco 49ers

If Alex Smith was starting for San Francisco 49ers I think they would have a better chance than with Colin Kaepernick. I appreciate that he’s been playing well but this is the second round of the playoffs and Alex Smith is ready for this pressure, proven and though Kaepernick can stretch  the field and move in the pocket better. I have Green Bay winning this and actually winning comfortably. I’ll admit that I backed the Packers after they were going through a tough patch and the price got out (and Dallas were heading in the wrong direction. Dallas were my NFC pick) but I still they are hitting form at the right time, and got all their players back healthy at the right time. Green Bay made Minnesota look like deer in headlights last week – including Petterson. I believe they do the same to Kaepernick and if San Fran get behind and he has to throw the ball – no hope.

Seattle Seahawks v Atlanta Falcons

One word "pressure"! All the pressure is on Atlanta in this game. How often do you see them make the playoffs and fail? Matty Ice has been near perfect at home during the regular season (3 loses lifetime). But in the playoffs, it’s the same old story. Seattle are using house money after winning away from home, which no-one gave them a chance of doing, well actually they were -2½ favs in Washington last week so someone gave them a hope. Pete Carroll has this team playing loose in a good way! High fiving here and there, and even when they were down by 14 he never panicked against Washington and this showed on the field as well. Atlanta’s record suggests they are the best team in the NFC – I very much doubt that.

Seattle defense is flying and they have proven they can take it on the road as well. Matt Ryan has a “playoff monkey” on his back,  it will turn into a gorilla if they are trailing at halftime. If they lose this game it will be King Kong come next season.

Houston v New England

When I was watching the Houston v Cincinnati game last week, I kept thinking whoever plays the winner of this game will crush them by 50. But this is the NFL and though the simple answer is New England Patriots to cover the -9½ I am taking a deep breathe and can’t even have the Pats as my best bet anymore. Not sure I won’t take the Texans with the +9½ start?

I remember when the Pats beat the NY Jets (45-3) in week 13 of the regular season, about two season ago? A few weeks later, the NY Jets which looked like they should be sent out to retire and no-one gave them a hope! Well they beat the Pats (28-21) in the playoffs to make the AFC Championship game (but lost to Pittsburgh 24-19).  I think this will be a very close game and I am not convinced that the best side to back is the Pats -9½. Like Baltimore, Houston have hobbled into the playoffs but they are still here, so what can you say. I often say – back the better team, which would be the Patriots. Last time they played each other the Pats opened -4½ pt favourites and won 42-14 but does that mean they are -9½ favourites now?

My gut says take the plus points, but my eyes said back the Patriots to win by 50! If you gave me $100 and I must bet on this game, give me the over 47½ total points.

BCS Championship Game…

Our other mate asked me for a tip and I said I can’t stop looking at the Alabama side, -9½ was a lot but at the same time I felt Notre Dame never really beat anyone. ND didn’t have a signature win. Only doubt was that Alabama could have easily had three losses rather than one. Still had a few dollars on the Alabama. How about that Aussie kid, Jesse Williams!! NFL bound, good on him. He did pull up towards the end, hope he’s not injured.