Supebowl XLVIII Preview

The Opener (opening price)

Let’s start with the opening line. In this case the first bookies I saw put out a prices, saw Denver Broncos slight favourites at $1.83 (-120) or take your pick (Pick’em). So all the early money was on Denver Broncos. 

Before I go on here, let me outline one very important fact;

Professional punters bet numbers (wiseguys)

vs

Mug punters bet teams (squares).

When mug punters talk about backing a team, they would say Denver Broncos are going to win and it would not matter what price the bookies put up, they’ll back the Broncos. If the opening line was minus 4½ making them about $1.50 to win, the mug punter would probably have more confidence and probably bet more. The shorter the better.

However the professional punter and the one who prefers to bet into opening lines and even two weeks before the event. These professionals bet numbers, not teams. They should show a profit not team loyalty! So when the line went up pick’em their ratings had Denver as value at $1.83 and probably had Denver at -2½. They see the value not the team’s name!

After a while the line moved to -2½ and you could say “The steam play was on the Denver Broncos” and “the wise guys like the Denver Broncos” but this is just half the story. The “wise guys like the Denver Broncos at Pick’em, -1.0 to -2.0.” Once they got to -3.0 the value was now on the Seattle Seahawks at +3.0 and the Pros started to do some buyback on Seattle Seahawks at the +3.0. Leaving the number at -2½ and the end of the first day’s trade.

Now let’s say the line opened at -4½ Denver just as an example. Well then all the wiseguys and pros, would have made Seattle their steam play or value bet and backed Seattle Seahawks. No doubt moving the line to +2½ Seahawks. From this angle (or opener) people could say, “All the pros love Seattle Seahawks in the Superbowl” which is not the complete picture! They have Seattle at +2½ and anything over that is value, anything under that, they would suggest to back the other side.

Again different from the Seahawk fan or mug punter, if the line went up +4½ Seattle or Pick’em at $1.97, they have already made up their mind and would have backed Seattle at any price. Value is not important. 

Some numbers

·        Using Pregame.com’s Sportsbook Spy as I write, there has been over 27,000 bets on the game (Win, Line and Total combined). With 73% of action on Denver at around -2.0, 58% on the Denver Win and 66% on the Unders.

·         An estimated $10 Billion (USD) is projected to be bet on Super Bowl XLVIII worldwide.

·         Over half of adult Americans, are expected to have some money at risk on the game. Less than 1% of the total amount bet is expected to be wagered legally in Nevada.

·         By all projections this Superbowl will be the biggest bet Super Bowl by hold ever.

·         Most bookies had Denver favourites at the beginning of the season at $6.50, whilst Seattle was fourth pick at about $13.00.

·         There is a 30% of snow during the Superbowl.

My tip

Everyone wants to talk about Seattle Defense, which is fair enough. This fact suggests that Russell Wilson is a little over rated and lucky to be on a team with such great defense, I agree.

But in agreeing that the Seattle Defense is the best in the league, statistically and generally. Clearly the Denver Broncos offense is the best, not just in the league, not just this year, but close to the best offense ever! I appreciate the rules have changed to suit the offense side of the ball, but in saying that, it was the two best defenses which played out the NFC Championship game last week. The NFL clearly hasn’t  ruled out defence completely.

But in regards to suggesting which one is better than the NFL baseline, I strongly feel that Denver’s offense is better than the norm, compared to Seattle’s Defence against the norm! This year Peyton Manning has set the NFL record for passing yards 5,477 and most passing touchdowns in a season at 55! Not to mention he did this in a division which had both the two wild card spots come from the AFC West (Kansas City and San Diego) so he wasn’t doing this against some ‘Sister’s of the Poor’ NFL team.

Clearly the predicted snowy weather will suit the defense, thus suiting Seattle. I know Manning’s record is 0-4 in the playoffs, if the temperature is less than 5c (40 Fahrenheit) and the Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch will love the conditions! 

The other thing to note with weather is that generally the totals come down, which makes sense. If anything, this may bring the defenses closer together, helping both defenses. If it was 9-0 final score, I would back the Broncos & Manning to get within field position three times, more than Wilson and his Seahawks.

Being on a neutral field, I feel disadvantages Seattle Seahawks more, than any disadvantage to Denver Broncos. Sure Mile High stadium is a huge advantage for Denver, but the 11^th Man in Seattle is even a bigger deal which they can’t take away on the road. CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA is the only field worth -4½ points in my ratings. Normally if two teams of equal ability or ratings played each other, the home team would be -3.0, as that’s how much home field is worth in the NFL. Saints get -3½ but everyone else at home, is pretty much -3.0. So if you take Seattle out of their comfort zone, take away the 11^th man, it only makes sense that they feel it far more than the Denver Broncos.

So my tip the Denver Broncos to win Superbowl!

I personally backed the New Orleans Saints before the season at $26, then Denver Broncos after about week one at around $5 and took plenty on San Francisco at $18 in about week 13. I am in a position where I could comfortably hedge my position by backing Seattle at $2.10 but I am happy to hold my position on the Denver Broncos.

Final Score Denver Broncos 30-17