Tebow : where differing opinions are all correct

Well it’s about time I waded in on the Tim Tebow debate, and if there hasn’t been enough words spilled about one NFL player who is just starting his career, well here’s 1,500 odd.

Full disclosure

I’ve loved Tim Tebow as a player ever he launched himself on the National stage in 2007. In that year he was the first College player to ever rush for 20 touchdowns and pass for 20 touchdowns, he also won the Heisman Trophy as a Sophomore (another 1st). The following year I backed his Florida Gators to win it all, and Tebow obliged going 13-1 and winning the BCS National Championship. In his Senior year of 2009 the Gators also went 13-1 but lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, can’t say I was happy about that result.

Why is he so polarizing?

For those who don’t know, Tebow has polarized the Nation and the NFL World. Its seems most people either hate him or they love him. If it suits your own personal opinion, you might love his Anti-Abortion ads with his mother and how he starts all his interviews with “I’d like to begin by thanking my Lord and savior, Jesus Christ”. Like the Oakland A’s Manager Billy Beane (Moneyball) I personally like a person who sticks to their convictions, I don’t have to necessarily agree with them, but as long as those convictions aren’t evil or directly hurt other people, you have to appreciate people who stick to their guns, especially when the rest of the world wants to tell them they are wrong or can’t play.

As a NFL player or Quarterback, the debate pretty much goes along the lines that he can’t play and isn’t very good. “He’s a very good Running Back” (Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears) who throws the ball on occasion and even when he throws the ball he often misses his target. Missing not just by inches or a foot, but my miles, especially when the target is wide open. Those in the pro-Tebow camp suggest that he’s a winner and everything else doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter how bad you play, as long as you win and his record of 7-1 is the only thing that matters.

So where do I stand?

If you backed the Denver Broncos for $100 for the win (money line) in week 9 and parlay’d the winnings through their 6 game winning streak, you would have $37,200 to bet on the New England Patriots this week.

Personally I’m not in the middle but rather at both ends.

What about the idea that both camps are right? I would go so far as only looking at his NFL starts and suggesting that nearly every game proves both camps right. So many of the games he plays right into the hands of his detractors, playing three quarters and sometimes even up to 55mins of “poor” football or poor quarterbacking. Yet those that call him a winner, in the belief that nothing else matters are also right!

On the side of being a winner, I will say that every podcast which features his fellow Denver teams mates, they all agree. He’s a born leader and his own willingness to dive head first, to never give up, and lead by example truly rubs off on his team. He makes his team winners across the board. Let me give you an example. In Week 13 and Week 14 the Dallas kicker had a chance to win the game and tie it up on kicks of less than 50 Yards. But before the Dallas kicker got iced by his own coach and then by the opposing NY Giants coach, you just knew this team were going to find a way to loose. You could sense it, and if I had live betting up they would have been 15-1 to make either of those kicks, because they are the Dallas Cowboys of 2011 and it’s like the team is led by a group of “losers.”

Compare this to Denver in week 14 and as Tebow is making his usually comeback drive (6 4th quarter comebacks in his first 11 games) and though he left his kicker a 57 Yarder to tie the game, and then a 53 yarder to win the game in overtime. You just knew they were going to go over! There was no doubt in my mind, that those kicks were going over! As if Tebow was kicking it himself, and his embodiment would make these kicks sale over with ease.

Obviously the NFL is a team sport and though the Quarterback is the most crucial position (just ask Peyton Manning and the Colts) Tebow wouldn’t be able to do it by himself. During Tebows run the Denver defense has played at a phenomenal level, and players such as rookie Von Miller isn’t just rookie defensive player of the year, but close to Defensive MVP overall. It’s almost impossible to measure the effect of a good QB on the defense, outside the fact that the longer offense is on the field, the better rested the defense will be. But what about the psychological effect? Even if we can’t measure this influence, it’s significant that his team mates are happy to attribute it to him.

Though I feel Tebow is getting better every week as a passer. One thing he doesn’t do is turnover the ball, just twice this season. This is where I will suggest that missing his passes by miles, isn’t such a bad thing, as it doesn’t allow for intercepts and pickoffs. His passes in the slot and held, and since there are no close passes, it means his passes don’t allow for tips, reach in intercepts and so on. And his other passes are miles off (Yes even to open receivers) but doesn’t allow for “unlucky turnovers.”

Why the Disparity between the 4th quarter and the rest of the game?

A lot of the commentators seem to focus on the opposing teams going soft and changing their defensive schemes in the last quarter. Though this happens, and though it’s often completely different to what has been working for opposing teams in the 1st three quarters, the real reason isn’t defensive co-ordinators going soft, but…

During the 1st three Quarters John Fox the Denver coach, calls a very conservative game which means a lot of runs plays and no real deep balls. He allows Tebow to keep it close and play himself into the game and have Tebow as a “Game manager.” It’s only in the 4th quarter that they go to a College style spread offense and let Tebow do his thing. His thing isn’t just about completing passes in the 4th quarter, but finding running lanes, making opponents run out of bounds like Marion Barber (Bears) and then fumbling the ball, 2pt conversions to force overtime and just getting it done.

My point here is that it’s not just about the opposing defense , changing their schemes. But rather its about John Fox opening up the Tebow led offense and running the spread offense Tebow can do his thing. I would love to see how Tebow and the Bronco’s go if Tebow was allowed to line up like this most of the game.

A tip

So if your only reading this for a tip, I do think the Denver Broncos will make the playoffs, mainly as the Oakland Raiders are going in the wrong direction and the San Diego Chargers have left any chance of their run too late. Obviously the New England Patriots will be a great test, and Tebow hasn’t really been tested having to come back from a big deficit. Though I think they can beat the Patriots since they are at home, I do feel they will win in the last two games against Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. Winning their division means they will have a home Playoff game and though it might be Baltimore or the Pittsburgh Steelers, I do feel that Denver’s Defense can keep this game nice and close and should be a real big chance. I see could see them in the AFC Championship game, but that’s about as far as Tebow Magic will take them.

World Series 2011 Preview

Game one of the MLB World Series 2011 starts on Thursday 11am AEDST. Betchoice sits down with their Senior US Sports Analyst, breaking down every market and answers every question a punter needs to know.

How did the teams get here?

The Texas Rangers came through the American League West. Though the LA Angels got within two games late in August, the Rangers were never really threatened winning 96 games (second best record in the American League and third overall) to take the division comfortably by ten games. The Rangers then took on a streaking Tampa Bay Rays, and though they lost the first game to a rookie (Matt Moore) who was starting only his second game in the majors, they beat the Rays in four close fought games. They started the series as $1.55 favourites. In the ALCS they took on American league Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers. The Rangers won the first two games, but winning crucial game four in Detroit really sealed this series. Nelson Cruz who bats eighth in the order was selected ALCS MVP after his sixth homerun and 13 RBI’s in the series (postseason record). They started the ALCS between $1.85 to $1.95. We bet $1.85 as don’t have as much respect for J Verlander as everyone else, and fancied Texas Rangers.

The St Louis Cardinals path was a bit rockier. Imagine being a Cardinals fan on August 24, you lost your third straight game against the Dodgers at home, lost 10 of their last 15 games and were eight under 0.500 since June, and most importantly 10½ Games behind in the wild-card race. Considering I thought the St Louis pitchers were dead, I have no doubt I would have had the Cardinals at $67 to win the World Series. I will say I still thought they had the best 3-4-5 hitters in the majors, which stopped me having them at $101. Since that day they have gone 30-13 and thanks to an almighty collapse by the Atlanta Braves – they squeaked into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. The Cardinals then faced the 102 win Phillies and started as $3.50 outsiders. Losing game one to Halladay, I felt the key was when they were down by 4 runs in game two against my favourite pitcher of all time Cliff Lee at Philadelphia and won 5-4. A Magical performance by Chris Carpenter against his good personal friend Roy Halladay in game five was enough for them to progress to the NLCS against Milwaukee. The Cardinals started outsiders against the Milwaukee Brewers at around $2.25 if not better. I tipped the Brewers to many of the boys in the office at $21, but Betchoice was still cheering the Cardinals as we laid some big bets on the Brewers at 13-1 on the way in. The Cardinals lost game one, but one away in game two in Milwaukee, who had the best home record in the majors. Game two went a long way to winning this series, but after the Brewers pitching on in St Louis, the series clinching game six, where the Cardinals won 12-6 in Milwaukee really showed the Cardinals batting power. David Freese was named NLCS MVP batting .545 3 Home runs and 9 RBI’s in the series. I said earlier that the Cardinals have the best 3-4-5 batters, if David Freese bats half as well in the World Series I would be very worried for the Rangers pitchers.

What should we know about the World Series Format?

The Rangers finished with 96 wins and the Cardinals finished with 90 wins. The National League won the All Star Game and as such the St Louis Cardinals will have the extra game at home. They will play 2 games in St Louis, then 3 in Texas and then if needed 2 back in St Louis. The team with the better record is only 50% in the last 10 World Series.

The Milwaukee series showed that home field advantage does not always translate to the post season. The Brewers splits (home vs away) for hitting & pitching was massive but couldn’t continue this in the playoffs. For example Fielder Batting average was .326 at home but only .272 in that series.
As such I feel that if Texas Rangers can pinch one away win from in the first two games, they would be confident and feel all they need to do is win 2-3 at home so they go back to St Louis up 3-2? Whereas if the Cardinals even win game two, they may feel they are in a great position, all they have done is “hold serve”. Whether it be NBA or MLB a series never starts until the away team wins.
The other thing to know is that thanks to television, they really spread out the games. If you recall two years ago when the NY Yankees won the World Series, because the games were spread out so much they were able to use a three man rotation and could have easily used CC Sabathia 3 times if need be.

Since the Cardinals did not have to go to game seven, they did not have to use their only genuine ace, Chris Carpenter. So he will start game one and possibly game four and game seven if need be.

Since 1985 the team hosting game 1 has won 20 of the 25 World Series.

Are there any stats we can use to impress our mates, or for betting and sound like we know what we are talking about?

Texas Rangers are one of eight teams which has never won the World Series. Last year they made the World Series with my mate Cliff Lee, but lost to the San Francisco Giants. This made them only the fifth American League team to make the World Series back-to-back. The previous three teams, who have made the World Series after losing one, have all won.

This is the 18th appearance for the Cardinals in the World Series. They are second on the all time list with titles, based on 17 previous appearances and 10 titles. The Yankees are 40 appearances and 27 titles. Only the Giants and the Dodgers have made it to the World Series as often as the Cardinals.
In the Wild Card era of last 15 teams to make the playoffs on the last day, only 4 have made the World Series, of these four, two have won the title.
From ESPN stats based on the regular season

The team that averages more runs per game in the regular season has won 11 of the last 15 World Series. The Rangers averaged 5.3 runs per game; the Cardinals averaged 4.7 runs per game.

The team with the better regular season batting average has won 14 of the last 21 World Series. That Rangers hit .283, the Cardinals hit .273.

The team with the better regular season ERA has won only 5 the last 20 World Series. The Rangers had a 3.79 ERA; the Cardinals had a 3.74 ERA.
Who Do you think is going to win MVP?

As soon as I put the market up a few “sharps” (known as smarties in Australia) backed Rafael Furcal (Cardinals), they snapped up the $16, I have wound him into $12 just based upon the volume of money.

My tip and the one that will be under the odds at Betchoice, is pitcher Alexei Ogando. He was a regular starter for Texas but is now used from the bullpen in middle relief. Though he has kept the Rays and Tigers hitters at bay, he hasn’t really been noticed as his Texas Rangers hitters have given him plenty of run support. This postseason he has pitched 10.1 Innings for a 0.87 era. So if the scores are like 4-3 and he come into the games with a one run lead and leaves the games with a one run lead, let’s say he should get a bit more notice. I do feel that at the $31 available is well over the odds.

The player I want to “lay” or risk is Michael Young for Texas, he opened at $8 after I came out. And after the Australian bookies copied my market I have pushed him out to $15 as he’s Texas Rangers Designated hitter – and nothing I have read suggests manager Ron Washington plans to use his elsewhere. As such he will only bat as a pinch hitter in the first two games, and won’t get have that many at-bats in general. The $8 is a great risk!

Albert Pujols is also a great risk, as I feel they are going to pitch around him. This may see him walk more, rather than have good pitches or strikes to hit. But even at the $6 Betchoice are laying him, so why would I give a better price when I can lay him at these short odds.

Obviously you have to select a player from the team you think will win the World Series. So my best chances from St Louis are Matt Holliday or Lance Berkman, with Nelson Cruz my pick from Texas. I think when the pitcher sees he’s the No.8 batter, he may not give him the respect he deserves and try and blow him away with fastballs which is right in Nelson Cruz’s wheel house.

So the important question is who is going to win and how?

The reason I never personally backed the St Louis Cardinals is their bullpen. They have close to the worse bullpen in the majors, and were maligned nearly all season. Their starters have to go deep and pitch well to have any chance. My concern here is outside of Chris Carpenter the rest of the Cardinals starters have been rubbish. I’ll admit the Bullpen has been “better” in the playoffs, but this was against a Phillies line up who went cold when it mattered. And were actually pounded by Milwaukee, but luckily for the Cardinals got more run support then their opposition.

My original market for the World Series was $1.70 Texas Rangers and $2.15 St Louis without looking at anyone else. On the exchanges you could get $1.85 Texas so I felt obliged to go up $1.77 Texas and $2.10 St Louis as my Series Opener.

Overnight in the US, they opened the St Cardinals at $2.20 which was a lot closer to my market, but have since moved from their opener prices to around $1.62 & $2.34. Meaning the money has come for Texas Rangers. A few things to keep in mind is that I feel neither of these two teams are the usual teams which get the futures support, like NY Yankees, Phillies or Boston Red Sox. The only time I feel bookmakers would have laid the St Louis Cardinals is on the final day, if they had them over the odds? With four games left is the season I saw plenty of $34 and $26 dollars available. Don’t forget they lost their opening game to Houston, which made things look impossible.

So as you can tell by opener I feel Texas should be favoured at $1.70 and win the World Series. However if you can get $2.40 about St Louis this seems like value to me as I have them at $2.15. I strongly feel the winner of Game Two will win the World Series which looks like C. Lewis for Texas against J. Garcia for St Louis Cardinals.

Give me Texas Rangers in Six Games

A Superbowl, a NBA Champion & Lord Stanley and a travelling trip warning…

I just want to start out by helping every Australian, by saying AVOID AVOID AVOID Directflights.com.au this Indian based company with a fake .com.au domain name, took my money for some flights out of my account, and confirmed the booking and THEN 4 hours later wanted to charge me an extra 50%. Somehow they could hold the tickets for 48hours if I paid the extra money, but could not hold the original booking as promised. It took them over 10 days to return the money (great if you needed the funds to buy legit tickets). When I rang them twice in 48 hours, a Md Shahidul Alam in India called me difficult and unreasonable for wanting my money back. So please, my best tip ever AVOID AVOID Directflights.com.au!! Of course these are my personal views (and experiences) and do not express the views of any company or affiliate.

Well it’s time to work out who will win the NBA Championship now that the NFL season has come to an end. For what it’s worth I have the experience of the Pittsburgh Steelers beating the Packers. The Packers are a team of the Future with the Aaron Rodgers being a great team leader and player.. but not this year. The loss of Pittsburgh Centre who snaps the ball to Ben Roethlisbeger may be more of a hindrance than a major drawback. The Steeler Offensive line have made their money with slant right or slant left moves, going back as far as Bill Cowher, simple and effective. Betchoice.com has 100’s of betting props for the Superbowl. Steelers 33 – 24

So welcome to my wheelhouse. .. the NBA

I really didn’t want to write anything until I saw the Miami Heat play a little. I know a lot of people make their money on predicting how good or bad the Heat were going to be. But I will suggest that most of it was just noise and total rubbish. They opened the season at $2.85 to win the NBA Championship and at that price I was happy to lay them as I felt a team in the Eastern Conference, having to go through Orlando or Boston Celtics don’t deserve to be that short.

Back prior to the season starting, I had the East Champs playing the LA Lakers, who with Phil Jackson at the helm, are deserved NBA favourites by some distance. This has somewhat changed now that we are almost half way through the season.

Currently Betchoice has Miami Heat at top price $3.10 and the LA Lakers cuddled at $3.75. I do see Miami Heat winning some Championships in the near future, just not this year. Boston Celtics are still strong, Orlando Magic have a great in-and-out game in Dwight Howard and their sharp shooters. Whilst in the West we have some teams absolutely flying, but give me the LA Lakers as the second best team once they work out their defense, but unfortunately for Kobe I have them gettng beat by the San Antonio Spurs in the West.

So let me start in the Western Conference including my NBA Championship tip. I have the San Antonio Spurs beating my original tip the LA Lakers in the West. This stems from my belief that they have a massive upside. Currently they have a 40 – 7 record and Tim Duncan is having his worse season ever! Not just is it bad for him, watching his game I would go so far as suggesting that he is actually bringing his team down. They have been surviving from great play by Matt Bonner and not surprisingly Manu Ginobili. This team has a massive upside and should finish with the best record in the NBA. The $9 available seems like overs and is the best value avilable.

I don’t really need to talk about why the defending Champions LA Lakers are a super team, and can make the Western Conference Finals. But Jerry West (dude on the NBA Logo) is 100% correct that their defense is rubbish! How can their three super bigs defend so small? It’s incredibly subpar. In their recent loss at home to the Sacramento Kings, they allowed the Kings to shoot over 70% from the field in the first half. They weren’t coming out on the Kings shouters, and they area just outside the key and in front of the three point line was owned by the Kings. This is the same area the Oklahoma City Thunder own, which is why they will be a very tough match up for the LA Lakers if Phil Jackson doesn’t sort this out. Their defensive plan seems to be to run all the opponents offense into the bigs Bynum and Gasol. The problem with this is that if a team settles for pull up jumpers and starts hitting them, it doesn’t work. Mid range jumpers may not seem high percentage option, but just giving opponents this shot all day isn’t exactly great defense. The Lakers still have the second best record in the West whilst copping critisism, so like the Boston Celtics, they will do enough to get to the Finals and then be fixed up to make a massive run.

Outside of the Spurs and the LA Lakers I give New Orleans Hornets a half chance and maybe Oklahoma City Thunder until they face the Spurs. This means I don’t give Dallas or Denver a chance come finals time.

Moving to Eastern Conference it’s a race in three with only Boston, Orlando and Miami the only real chances. I feel that Derrick Rose is having a MVP season and whenever possible I try and watch Chicago Bulls games. But like Blake Griffin from the LA Clippers, though I am in love with his game I am not in love with the team. Chicago Bulls might be better with Joakim Noah back, but outside of Rose they have nothing and no great options. Rose literally does everything.

Though it’s tough to see who will win the East I will be shocked if it’s not one of these three teams! Of the three, give me the Boston Celtics. Of course they have to stay healthy, but given their experience, ability to face Orlando and match up inside, and since I’m still not convinced about the Miami Heat, give me Boston. The Celtics were my tip last year and came so close, I also think that this might be their last chance, so it’s a bit all or nothing for them. Without conferences I would have Lakers and Spurs clearly ahead of their Eastern foes.

If Miami Heat faced Orlando Magic today I would back Orlando.. they are currently 2½ games behind Miami Heat. After being involved in the big trade this season, I think Orlando are looking good to make a sustained run. With Dwight Howard in the middle, anything is possible with this team. If I was Miami I would run all my plays right into Howard to try and get him into foul trouble. If they don’t, Dwight will be able to clog the middle for the whole game and hence power their way through the NBA Finals.

If you watch the Heat play, they don’t run that many plays, and 90% of the plays start as Isolation plays spacing LeBron and Wade on either side. Both drive to draw the foul, or pass to Chris Bosh if the double team comes, their 3rd option is to kick it out to the shouters like Eddie House who I have seen three times this season take the final shot - mainly as Wade and LeBron are well defended.

So I have Orlando Magic beating Miami Heat, with Boston Celtics winning the East over Orlando Magic. Over in the West I have San Antonio knocking out the Oklahoma City Thunder and then the LA Lakers in the Final. Then give me the San Antonio Spurs winning the NBA Championship 4-1.

A quick tip for Lord Stanley’s Cup…

Before I leave you I will give you my NHL tips otherwise my mate Trent will be blowing up. About a month ago, I fell in love with Vancouver Canucks and took most of the $10 available. They are super short at $5.50 with $6 available. I have them playing Philadelphia Flyers from the East which means neither Washington Capitals or Pittsburgh Penguins make the Stanley Cup Final. The Flyers are so solid on offense and defense they don’t need a super effort from their Goalie, they are just nicely balanced. Being from the East makes life very difficult. Of the rest I think the Tampa Bay Lightning will improve in the second half of the season. Since they are all in the East, it gives me more confidence that the Vancouver Canucks will have a big chance coming from the West and if the East beat each other up, the Canucks sweep the Stanley Cup 4-0, but give me 4-1.

Happy Punting and remember AVOID Directflights.com.au, don’t be fooled by their .com.au domain, these Indian thieves will ruin any potential holiday.