World Series 2011 Preview

Game one of the MLB World Series 2011 starts on Thursday 11am AEDST. Betchoice sits down with their Senior US Sports Analyst, breaking down every market and answers every question a punter needs to know.

How did the teams get here?

The Texas Rangers came through the American League West. Though the LA Angels got within two games late in August, the Rangers were never really threatened winning 96 games (second best record in the American League and third overall) to take the division comfortably by ten games. The Rangers then took on a streaking Tampa Bay Rays, and though they lost the first game to a rookie (Matt Moore) who was starting only his second game in the majors, they beat the Rays in four close fought games. They started the series as $1.55 favourites. In the ALCS they took on American league Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers. The Rangers won the first two games, but winning crucial game four in Detroit really sealed this series. Nelson Cruz who bats eighth in the order was selected ALCS MVP after his sixth homerun and 13 RBI’s in the series (postseason record). They started the ALCS between $1.85 to $1.95. We bet $1.85 as don’t have as much respect for J Verlander as everyone else, and fancied Texas Rangers.

The St Louis Cardinals path was a bit rockier. Imagine being a Cardinals fan on August 24, you lost your third straight game against the Dodgers at home, lost 10 of their last 15 games and were eight under 0.500 since June, and most importantly 10½ Games behind in the wild-card race. Considering I thought the St Louis pitchers were dead, I have no doubt I would have had the Cardinals at $67 to win the World Series. I will say I still thought they had the best 3-4-5 hitters in the majors, which stopped me having them at $101. Since that day they have gone 30-13 and thanks to an almighty collapse by the Atlanta Braves – they squeaked into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. The Cardinals then faced the 102 win Phillies and started as $3.50 outsiders. Losing game one to Halladay, I felt the key was when they were down by 4 runs in game two against my favourite pitcher of all time Cliff Lee at Philadelphia and won 5-4. A Magical performance by Chris Carpenter against his good personal friend Roy Halladay in game five was enough for them to progress to the NLCS against Milwaukee. The Cardinals started outsiders against the Milwaukee Brewers at around $2.25 if not better. I tipped the Brewers to many of the boys in the office at $21, but Betchoice was still cheering the Cardinals as we laid some big bets on the Brewers at 13-1 on the way in. The Cardinals lost game one, but one away in game two in Milwaukee, who had the best home record in the majors. Game two went a long way to winning this series, but after the Brewers pitching on in St Louis, the series clinching game six, where the Cardinals won 12-6 in Milwaukee really showed the Cardinals batting power. David Freese was named NLCS MVP batting .545 3 Home runs and 9 RBI’s in the series. I said earlier that the Cardinals have the best 3-4-5 batters, if David Freese bats half as well in the World Series I would be very worried for the Rangers pitchers.

What should we know about the World Series Format?

The Rangers finished with 96 wins and the Cardinals finished with 90 wins. The National League won the All Star Game and as such the St Louis Cardinals will have the extra game at home. They will play 2 games in St Louis, then 3 in Texas and then if needed 2 back in St Louis. The team with the better record is only 50% in the last 10 World Series.

The Milwaukee series showed that home field advantage does not always translate to the post season. The Brewers splits (home vs away) for hitting & pitching was massive but couldn’t continue this in the playoffs. For example Fielder Batting average was .326 at home but only .272 in that series.
As such I feel that if Texas Rangers can pinch one away win from in the first two games, they would be confident and feel all they need to do is win 2-3 at home so they go back to St Louis up 3-2? Whereas if the Cardinals even win game two, they may feel they are in a great position, all they have done is “hold serve”. Whether it be NBA or MLB a series never starts until the away team wins.
The other thing to know is that thanks to television, they really spread out the games. If you recall two years ago when the NY Yankees won the World Series, because the games were spread out so much they were able to use a three man rotation and could have easily used CC Sabathia 3 times if need be.

Since the Cardinals did not have to go to game seven, they did not have to use their only genuine ace, Chris Carpenter. So he will start game one and possibly game four and game seven if need be.

Since 1985 the team hosting game 1 has won 20 of the 25 World Series.

Are there any stats we can use to impress our mates, or for betting and sound like we know what we are talking about?

Texas Rangers are one of eight teams which has never won the World Series. Last year they made the World Series with my mate Cliff Lee, but lost to the San Francisco Giants. This made them only the fifth American League team to make the World Series back-to-back. The previous three teams, who have made the World Series after losing one, have all won.

This is the 18th appearance for the Cardinals in the World Series. They are second on the all time list with titles, based on 17 previous appearances and 10 titles. The Yankees are 40 appearances and 27 titles. Only the Giants and the Dodgers have made it to the World Series as often as the Cardinals.
In the Wild Card era of last 15 teams to make the playoffs on the last day, only 4 have made the World Series, of these four, two have won the title.
From ESPN stats based on the regular season

The team that averages more runs per game in the regular season has won 11 of the last 15 World Series. The Rangers averaged 5.3 runs per game; the Cardinals averaged 4.7 runs per game.

The team with the better regular season batting average has won 14 of the last 21 World Series. That Rangers hit .283, the Cardinals hit .273.

The team with the better regular season ERA has won only 5 the last 20 World Series. The Rangers had a 3.79 ERA; the Cardinals had a 3.74 ERA.
Who Do you think is going to win MVP?

As soon as I put the market up a few “sharps” (known as smarties in Australia) backed Rafael Furcal (Cardinals), they snapped up the $16, I have wound him into $12 just based upon the volume of money.

My tip and the one that will be under the odds at Betchoice, is pitcher Alexei Ogando. He was a regular starter for Texas but is now used from the bullpen in middle relief. Though he has kept the Rays and Tigers hitters at bay, he hasn’t really been noticed as his Texas Rangers hitters have given him plenty of run support. This postseason he has pitched 10.1 Innings for a 0.87 era. So if the scores are like 4-3 and he come into the games with a one run lead and leaves the games with a one run lead, let’s say he should get a bit more notice. I do feel that at the $31 available is well over the odds.

The player I want to “lay” or risk is Michael Young for Texas, he opened at $8 after I came out. And after the Australian bookies copied my market I have pushed him out to $15 as he’s Texas Rangers Designated hitter – and nothing I have read suggests manager Ron Washington plans to use his elsewhere. As such he will only bat as a pinch hitter in the first two games, and won’t get have that many at-bats in general. The $8 is a great risk!

Albert Pujols is also a great risk, as I feel they are going to pitch around him. This may see him walk more, rather than have good pitches or strikes to hit. But even at the $6 Betchoice are laying him, so why would I give a better price when I can lay him at these short odds.

Obviously you have to select a player from the team you think will win the World Series. So my best chances from St Louis are Matt Holliday or Lance Berkman, with Nelson Cruz my pick from Texas. I think when the pitcher sees he’s the No.8 batter, he may not give him the respect he deserves and try and blow him away with fastballs which is right in Nelson Cruz’s wheel house.

So the important question is who is going to win and how?

The reason I never personally backed the St Louis Cardinals is their bullpen. They have close to the worse bullpen in the majors, and were maligned nearly all season. Their starters have to go deep and pitch well to have any chance. My concern here is outside of Chris Carpenter the rest of the Cardinals starters have been rubbish. I’ll admit the Bullpen has been “better” in the playoffs, but this was against a Phillies line up who went cold when it mattered. And were actually pounded by Milwaukee, but luckily for the Cardinals got more run support then their opposition.

My original market for the World Series was $1.70 Texas Rangers and $2.15 St Louis without looking at anyone else. On the exchanges you could get $1.85 Texas so I felt obliged to go up $1.77 Texas and $2.10 St Louis as my Series Opener.

Overnight in the US, they opened the St Cardinals at $2.20 which was a lot closer to my market, but have since moved from their opener prices to around $1.62 & $2.34. Meaning the money has come for Texas Rangers. A few things to keep in mind is that I feel neither of these two teams are the usual teams which get the futures support, like NY Yankees, Phillies or Boston Red Sox. The only time I feel bookmakers would have laid the St Louis Cardinals is on the final day, if they had them over the odds? With four games left is the season I saw plenty of $34 and $26 dollars available. Don’t forget they lost their opening game to Houston, which made things look impossible.

So as you can tell by opener I feel Texas should be favoured at $1.70 and win the World Series. However if you can get $2.40 about St Louis this seems like value to me as I have them at $2.15. I strongly feel the winner of Game Two will win the World Series which looks like C. Lewis for Texas against J. Garcia for St Louis Cardinals.

Give me Texas Rangers in Six Games