Let's Go Wild for the Wild Card games

Well not that surprisingly, as I suggested two posts ago... all four Wild cards are favourites in the Wild Card playoffs. All away from home and all are considered "better" teams and I have to totally agree with the odds maker with having the right favourites.

I was a bit surprised that Atlanta Falcons at -2.0 (opened -2.5) is more favoured to beat Arizona in Uni of Phoenix, then the Colts are favoured to beat the San Diego Chargers, only -1.0 favs. Which leads to why you all read this blog.. who will win and collect the cash.

Now I know historically that the Indianapolis Colts "struggle" against San Diego as the Chargers seem to play hard against the Colts. But from the picture you can tell who my two specials are, they might not be playing each other like pictured, but the Colts and the Ravens are my two Wild Card specials.

For mine the the Colts are playing at such a high level, and really are one of the elite teams in the NFL. With Peyton Manning in the team, I think anything can happen and it would not surprise me if they win the the Superbowl. Absolutely on fire. I should point out that the Colts (with the Carolina Panthers) were the first two teams I backed to win the Superbowl! I took the $11 about the Colts, they got out to $20 and I had some more. They are currently $10 at Betchoice.com and yes you can get better else where. The Colts won the week 12 matchup 23-20 in week 12, Adam Vinateri being the difference.

The other special, also in the AFC side is the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Miami Dolphins. They are -3.0 @ $1.80 favourites, or $1.53 at the Money line (straight out to win). Don't think that the Ravens are just about Defense, though this is a great starting point. But the rookie Joe Flacco (QB) and the rookie coach have this team playing a powerful game. Remember in week 4 this year, Baltimore travelled to Miami and won 27-13.

In the other two games, I am leaning to the two home teams, but am not suggesting they are good bets. Rather I think Arizona back at home can beat the Falcons, but it would not surprise me if the -2.0 favs Atlanta won. As with Minnesota, if they can get back to the running game and establish A.P. to allow the pass latter in the game, they can beat the Eagles. But the red hot Eagles still have that draw against the Bengals and that loss against the Redskins (3-10) in my head which gives me no confidence. If you twisted my arm I would take the Vikings.

Last Year is last Years form

First of all if you happened to read my previous post called "NFL week 17 getting on the Money" you would have found yourself a nice little treble with the Pats winning (and covering the line, which was great for Betchoice.com), Ravens covering their -12.0 and the San Diego Chargers easily making a mockery of the 'enver Broncos... no "D" in Denver. The multi dividend paid $1.48*$1.93*1.93 = $5.51 too easy. That's why I call them Specials, sure some other suggestions won, but more importantly the specials got up!

But what I wanted to explain today is that last years form is last years form. Sure its great to say things like the New England Patriots always struggle against Miami, Or Notre Dame Fightin' Irish never win bowl games being 0-9 until this years victory (a very very bad result for Betchoice.com). But at some point during the season, you have to re-assess a team and say these guys are actually pretty good and nothing like last years team, or previous history. Yes the Patriots went 18-whatever last season, but this year they have no Brady and the other teams in their division have got better.

But lets look at the Miami Dolphins last year, they had one victory, got Bill Parcels (pitcured) and improved dramatically. Sure the Pats came back to the pack, but in week 10 when they were 5-4 this season you could still get $12.50 for them to win the AFC East. To me that's value, and 'cos the Pats were winning and NY Jets were going fine people just assume that the Dolphins will tank, and Pats or NY Jets will win it. Another example is the Atlanta Falcons who started at what I call a genuine 500-1! They lost one of the greatest QB's ever in Michael Vick, gave up good veterans like TE Alge Crumpler, had a rookie Coach and a rookie QB in a division which featured teams who were genuine threats. Sure their first two wins came against win less Detroit and Kansas City, but at some point you have to see the team in front of you! For the record they are $31 going into the playoffs. I had a few pennies at 100-1 but nothing serious.

Yes the Boston Celtics are who they were last year.

Last example is the Tampa Bay Rays this 2008 season. Again they are in probably the toughest division with the Boston Red Sox and NY Yankees, with close to the smallest payroll in the Majors. And though I recall they started more than $140 at some places. When it got to 2/3rds into the season they were playing great, had great pitching and simply put were in the top three teams in the American League with the Angels and Red Sox but you could still get $46. When they were firming their position as leaders of the East or the American League wild card, they were still $26.... yes I got on for plenty, but didn't bet back against the Phillies though.

So some teams are "who we thought they are" others are wolves in sheeps clothing. And then there are the true diamonds in the rough, which is what I love looking for, especially when the rest of the world don't think they can go on with it!!

NFL Week 17 getting on the Money

So it's the last week of the season. And lets start with my first rule which mug punters love. They love to back teams that have to win vs teams that don't have anything to play for. Most of the time may I suggest that the teams aren't that good to start with, and hence that's why they have to win! As such, the fact that they are leaving it to the last week, doesn't automatically mean that they deserve your hard earned money or the victory.

Think of Denver, three game lead with three games to go. They have to win one game to win the division, but alas haven't managed that so far (including last weeks lame effort at home to the Bills) you thought that last week they would win as they wouldn't want to leave it to the last week in San Diego, but they have. Add to this equation, when teams don't have anything to play for, they can relax and not tense up under pressure.

For me, I see the last week as any other week. Line up the teams, the betting and then have a look at their motivation. Let's look atthe Dallas Cowboys who have to win, but away to the Eagles who have nothing to play for suggests to me that the Cowboys have put themselves into this situation all by themselves. And this is a prime example of just because a team has to win, doesn't mean that they will win, especially against a decent team on the road. I am not suggesting that Dallas can't win, or Eagles will win, but this is a perfect "no bet" game. Would you be surprised if either side won? Would you back them in week 3 for example?

Looking at the Tampa Bay must win, vs a hopeless Raiders team whom really aren't that bad on the whole. I think the line is a little long here at 13.0. They should win, but -13.0 seems a big ask. What's to note here is that I am avoiding teams which I would normally back if it was a midseason match if they don't have to win, like the NY Giants who would normally be strong favourites. Watching a coach rest players by the team you have backed, can bring tears to the eyes.

Alright lets get down to who I am backing with conviction... but even though it may look like I am simply backing teams that must win, vs teams that don't. The difference is I feel these teams can win and will win. If it wasn't the last week I would still be backing these teams, and for mine that's the key difference. I am not backing them because they have to win, but because they can!

Lets start with the Baltimore Ravens, last year when they lost in overtime to give Miami their only win for the season I could not have enough on the Dolphins and I shared it with my entire office. There are games you like to hang your hat on (put your career on) and this was one of them. As was the Pats last week! Anyway, this year the Ravens have been great to me! And for mine, at home this defense won't let Jacksonville on the board so it's just a question whether Flacco can get two TD's on the board, I am tipping and backing he can! He should get help from his mate Willis McGahee pictured.

Okay another team that can and will win is the New England Patriots if you like taking the shorts, the threes-on ($1.36 or -270) seems a pretty fair Price. Even though they are away to inter divisional rivals, I am happy to take the -6.5 as I think they will put the sword to the Bills. A bit like the Arizona Cardinals last week who mailed it in before the game started. Don't think the Pats are a bad team, they aren't backing into the playoffs like the Chargers or Arizona. My suspected 11-5 records for the Pats is damn good and playoff worthy.

Finally the late game has a team which has totally fallen apart in the form of the 'enver Broncos (No "D" in Denver) away to the San Diego Chargers. As I mentioned before the Broncos are the only team to have a 3 game division lead and NOT make the playoffs. Both teams must win, but seriously besides the Ed Hockely call for the Chargers which set them back, the Chargers haven't been that bad. Whereas the Broncos have really stunk. Last week Betchoice.com layed the Bills +6.5 against the Broncos mainly due to the weather, but I honestly thought I should be happy to lay the Bills as the Broncos won't waste this chance, even though they led, they not only didn't cover the line, they couldn't find a way to win! So I am suggesting that the Chargers are easily a TD and Field goal better at home than the Broncos. Take the -8.0.

As for the other games, Tampa Bay should win but -13.0 too much Oakland may have lost their offense but their Corner and Defense is pretty damn good, and they are out there a long time each game. Wouldn't be surprised if the Lions beat the Packers, he's a blog waiting to happen. Don't expect bad teams to suddenly play well, even if they are playing another bad team. I like Dallas vs Eagles but Romo ain't 100% and Eagles might be up for this at home. I can understand why the Vikings are favs if the NY Giants rest all their players, but that doesn't mean I wanna back them. Texans seem like they are win one loss one, so perhaps they should be able to win one here? I really like Carolina Panthers but on the road, and especially after such a mentally tough loss, leave me out. Atlanta Falcons should win but the -14.0 even to the Rams seems big, remember last week they got 6 turnovers and really only just fell in to the Vikings. Kansas City Chiefs are slightly better than their record, but doesn't mean they can, just means that the Bengals Defense which has been playing well, may have a tough time as they have little support from their Offense. Titans v Colts??? I really really want to back the Steelers as the Browns are playing like the worse team in Football, Yes worse then the Lions! But all reports suggest that the Steelers will be resting players. Maybe if the line shortens or maybe a bet in the first half, when Ben plays for the 1st qtr gets up 21-0. Maybe that's a bet? Now I would be tipping the Miami Dolphins as one of my special bets, but being a divisional rival game that matters so much to all involved, especially the QB's. It seems too hard to pick, hence the value seems like the Dolphins. Also I don't want my future bet, on Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East to influence what I want to happen, with what I think will happen. Took the $10.50 for the record, in about week 7. Though Arizona has clinched surely they don't want to walk into the playoffs with a loss, sure they might rest players, but they should win. Because of all that I am leaning towards the Seattle Seahawks as I like how they have played in the last few weeks. That leaves San Francisco 49ers who's coach has a "team of winners" and have been playing hard. Whereas Washington for mine has simply deteriorated under coach Jim Zorn, he calls the Offense and well have only scored more points then the Browns, Raiders, Rams and Bengals - great company!

Happy punting and let's hope you wanna know my Playoff tips, but I can say that I will be backing all the wildcards at this stage, especially if they are outsiders. So what if they are away.

Understanding Pace vs the law of averages

Alright so the first tip and blog started with a duck egg... but that doesn't mean the form wasn't there. It means that the LA Lakers in the last 1mins 30secs were just so "up" for this game, whereas Boston looked flat and simply disinterested. Once LA got up by 4 they let time run out. A couple of bad 3 pt attempts illustrated their frustration or lack of commitment at the end compared to the Lakers.

The good news for me, was that I got all my money back in the San Antonio v Phoenix game beforehand, well rather the 2nd half of that game. Watching the first half of this game, it's really important how pace of a game can effect everything else. The first half was 45 + 39 = 84 for the first half on a game that they estimated would have 201pts down from 203.0 opener.

Watching this game, what really really worked for the Phoenix Suns was dumping it into the Shaq! Phoenix slowy working the ball up court, dumping it into him and Shaq making the shot or kicking it back out. With the Suns leading 45-39 I thought they would keep doing what worked the 1st half, rather than vary? Now if the game moved 2pts lower from the opener, it means a few punters or bookies thought it might go a bit lower. We know that the Spurs play a slow half court defensive game, so I was shocked when the bookies put up 101.5 up to 102.0 for the second half.

A few people will say that the law of averages dictates that both teams will shoot better, and as such score more points. But when I assess in the run I prefer to see what is out there rather than re lie purely on averages! If law of averages did always work, then bookies could simply put up prices solely on what a team averages, irrespective of whether a coach has been fired, how a team matches up against another team, and injuries. Just because Kobe doesn't play and he averages 26.1pts per game, doesn't mean you can put the total up 26.1pts less!

I prefer to think that the Suns will want to slow down the game as it has worked this far and if Spurs do what they normally do, the second half should be another low scoring affair. Needless to say that the 3rd qtr was a very high scoring affair, namely as Spurs were hitting threes like nothing! And the Suns moved away from what worked (Surprisingly) and up-paced the game. Much to my dismay they score 32-31 in the 3rd qtr! Luckily for me, I could have a 39 pts in the 4th qtr and they only scored 34 (1 pt off overtime = loss), it actually went the way I thought the entire game would go.

So my point? Watch the pace of the game and seriously try and picture in your head how it will pan out. It's not nearly as hard as it sounds. Remember most of the time bookies like to bring things back to the original line or original total where possible. What does that mean? If say the Cavs are -10.5 favs and they lead by 6 after the 1st half then the 2nd half line will be -4.5 almost guaranteed! If the total is 200.0 for the game and the 1st hald was 99 then the second half market will be 99.5 or 101.0 or there abouts. Its when its way off, when its harder to know what bookies will exactly do.

So sometimes they can't but more than often irrespective of what happens in the game, they play their book before the game itself. That's when I suggest stepping in and betting, if you have had a good look at the teams and then see game differently, or see something a miss.

Another quick example was in the NFL NY Jets @ Seattle in the snow! The game total started at 41.0 and at halftime it was 3-7. NY Jets the 3.5pt favs didn't look like scoring And being in the snow meant it was going to be even harder! So what did the bookies put up for the second half 18.5pts! You have got to be kidding... I could not have enough on the unders! The weather and the game dictated it was always going to come down to FG's or a fluke TD... The second half was 0-6 and hence I collected! Again using the opening line and total points against the bookies!

Next Blog : the NFL Week 17 tips.

Happy Punting

Starting with a Christmas Winner

I would like to start by saying that I always talk out of my kit, whether that be my own kit (own pocket) or my companies money, both are very important to me. To me there's nothing worse that a tipster who doesn't put his own hard earned money on his tips, it doesn't matter if its a little or a lot (weeks wages for example). But it has to be something. Thats why I hate stock brokers who tip you a share and don't buy any themselves! All they care about is turnover, not me I wanna tip winners as it means I am also backing winners.

What do I do, besides punt? I set the odds or prices for all the US Sports for an Australian Bookie called Betchoice.com. And I better clarify right from the outset that the thoughts and opinions on this blog are strictly my own, and do not represent Betchoice.com in any way. So when I call Brett Favre a washed out hack who should have stayed retired, that's me and not Betchoice.com. When I say Tampa Bay Rays won't make the playoffs this year that's me, though it does mean Betchoice.com should be the best price in the world.

So lets hope my first blog leads to the valley of wealth and relaxation. Or atleast what goes through the head of a bookie setting the odds.

I have just finished doing my reviews and stats for today's NBA games, which include the Boston Celtics beating the hapless Philadelphia 76ers 110-91 for their 19th straight victory. Yes the longest in their franchise history. One that includes, Red Auerbach era , through the Larry Bird era [see my Topps Letterman Bird Card above, - love it] the John Havlicek era, the Bill Russell era. All from a team who won the last NBA title and face each team who are desperate to beat them by bringing it! Philadelphia didn't bring it for the record shooting 0-11 from 3pt land (which makes 0-19 last two games), surprising this game finished over 191.5pts (opened 193.0) and a great result for Betchoice.com in the end.

At 27-2, the Celtics are off to the best 29-game start in NBA history and remain one game ahead of the 72-win pace set by the 1995-96 Chicago "Jordan" Bulls were 26-3 after their first 29 games but didn't lose their fourth until they had already piled up 41 wins. No wonder the crowd was bored with this game in the 3rd qtr and started to shout "Beat L.A" for most of the game.

So who's going to win? I noticed that an Australian bookie had this game out 4 days in advance, with the Lakers -2.5 favourites as their opener, and closed at time of writing -1.5pts favourites. Two days before the game is played.

I have steamed into the Boston Celtics to win on Christmas day? Why? Why won't Lakers seek revenge and get it at the home in the Staples Center. First off the schedule for the Lakers, 5 games in seven days! Including a tough loss to Miami, loss to the Magic and a tough assignment in New Orleans which they won. Sure these guys are professional and have a roster so deep Luke Walton is their no.9 but it was a tough scheduled which saw them pushed to two losses. Compare this to Boston and who only have 4 games over the same period, and all of these have been at home which they weren't pushed and won by 22, 19 and 19! Too good, too easy.

Secondly I think Boston are playing better basketball through their entire roster. Exceptional defense which stopped the Lakers last season in the playoffs and will again. And they have shown that they have the Lakers measure. Simply put I have them 2.5 pts favs! I think the big three matchup better, and in the smaller matchups I still think you simply put the ball back into KG, Pierce or Allens hands and Lakers won't stop them. Kendrick Perkins is rebounding like 'the worm' and even Rando is being the assist king which the Celtics need from him!

As for who is going to stop the run, I'd like to say Indiana, but Danny "No.1 on my All-Star ,ballot" Granger is not 100% which means looking at the schedule, they have have Cavs in game 27 of the streak, and Miami "Wade or nought" Heat for win 34. Otherwise I don't see it stopping?!?! More on the Cavs game another time.

Go the Celtics... for the record will they win it all, or be like Houston with their meaningless streak (22) last year, or New England Pats 16-Whatever? I think Cavs will beat them in the Eastern Conference Final, who will face the Spurs and win. To me Spurs are the ONLY team which can beat LA in the West. But whilst saying that, if they get knocked out before facing the Lakers in the playoffs, Cavs beat LA Lakers for the NBA 2009 Championship.

Good punting,

Brendo