Alright so the first tip and blog started with a duck egg... but that doesn't mean the form wasn't there. It means that the LA Lakers in the last 1mins 30secs were just so "up" for this game, whereas Boston looked flat and simply disinterested. Once LA got up by 4 they let time run out. A couple of bad 3 pt attempts illustrated their frustration or lack of commitment at the end compared to the Lakers.
The good news for me, was that I got all my money back in the San Antonio v Phoenix game beforehand, well rather the 2nd half of that game. Watching the first half of this game, it's really important how pace of a game can effect everything else. The first half was 45 + 39 = 84 for the first half on a game that they estimated would have 201pts down from 203.0 opener.
Watching this game, what really really worked for the Phoenix Suns was dumping it into the Shaq! Phoenix slowy working the ball up court, dumping it into him and Shaq making the shot or kicking it back out. With the Suns leading 45-39 I thought they would keep doing what worked the 1st half, rather than vary? Now if the game moved 2pts lower from the opener, it means a few punters or bookies thought it might go a bit lower. We know that the Spurs play a slow half court defensive game, so I was shocked when the bookies put up 101.5 up to 102.0 for the second half.
A few people will say that the law of averages dictates that both teams will shoot better, and as such score more points. But when I assess in the run I prefer to see what is out there rather than re lie purely on averages! If law of averages did always work, then bookies could simply put up prices solely on what a team averages, irrespective of whether a coach has been fired, how a team matches up against another team, and injuries. Just because Kobe doesn't play and he averages 26.1pts per game, doesn't mean you can put the total up 26.1pts less!
I prefer to think that the Suns will want to slow down the game as it has worked this far and if Spurs do what they normally do, the second half should be another low scoring affair. Needless to say that the 3rd qtr was a very high scoring affair, namely as Spurs were hitting threes like nothing! And the Suns moved away from what worked (Surprisingly) and up-paced the game. Much to my dismay they score 32-31 in the 3rd qtr! Luckily for me, I could have a 39 pts in the 4th qtr and they only scored 34 (1 pt off overtime = loss), it actually went the way I thought the entire game would go.
So my point? Watch the pace of the game and seriously try and picture in your head how it will pan out. It's not nearly as hard as it sounds. Remember most of the time bookies like to bring things back to the original line or original total where possible. What does that mean? If say the Cavs are -10.5 favs and they lead by 6 after the 1st half then the 2nd half line will be -4.5 almost guaranteed! If the total is 200.0 for the game and the 1st hald was 99 then the second half market will be 99.5 or 101.0 or there abouts. Its when its way off, when its harder to know what bookies will exactly do.
So sometimes they can't but more than often irrespective of what happens in the game, they play their book before the game itself. That's when I suggest stepping in and betting, if you have had a good look at the teams and then see game differently, or see something a miss.
Another quick example was in the NFL NY Jets @ Seattle in the snow! The game total started at 41.0 and at halftime it was 3-7. NY Jets the 3.5pt favs didn't look like scoring And being in the snow meant it was going to be even harder! So what did the bookies put up for the second half 18.5pts! You have got to be kidding... I could not have enough on the unders! The weather and the game dictated it was always going to come down to FG's or a fluke TD... The second half was 0-6 and hence I collected! Again using the opening line and total points against the bookies!
Next Blog : the NFL Week 17 tips.
Happy Punting
The good news for me, was that I got all my money back in the San Antonio v Phoenix game beforehand, well rather the 2nd half of that game. Watching the first half of this game, it's really important how pace of a game can effect everything else. The first half was 45 + 39 = 84 for the first half on a game that they estimated would have 201pts down from 203.0 opener.
Watching this game, what really really worked for the Phoenix Suns was dumping it into the Shaq! Phoenix slowy working the ball up court, dumping it into him and Shaq making the shot or kicking it back out. With the Suns leading 45-39 I thought they would keep doing what worked the 1st half, rather than vary? Now if the game moved 2pts lower from the opener, it means a few punters or bookies thought it might go a bit lower. We know that the Spurs play a slow half court defensive game, so I was shocked when the bookies put up 101.5 up to 102.0 for the second half.
A few people will say that the law of averages dictates that both teams will shoot better, and as such score more points. But when I assess in the run I prefer to see what is out there rather than re lie purely on averages! If law of averages did always work, then bookies could simply put up prices solely on what a team averages, irrespective of whether a coach has been fired, how a team matches up against another team, and injuries. Just because Kobe doesn't play and he averages 26.1pts per game, doesn't mean you can put the total up 26.1pts less!
I prefer to think that the Suns will want to slow down the game as it has worked this far and if Spurs do what they normally do, the second half should be another low scoring affair. Needless to say that the 3rd qtr was a very high scoring affair, namely as Spurs were hitting threes like nothing! And the Suns moved away from what worked (Surprisingly) and up-paced the game. Much to my dismay they score 32-31 in the 3rd qtr! Luckily for me, I could have a 39 pts in the 4th qtr and they only scored 34 (1 pt off overtime = loss), it actually went the way I thought the entire game would go.
So my point? Watch the pace of the game and seriously try and picture in your head how it will pan out. It's not nearly as hard as it sounds. Remember most of the time bookies like to bring things back to the original line or original total where possible. What does that mean? If say the Cavs are -10.5 favs and they lead by 6 after the 1st half then the 2nd half line will be -4.5 almost guaranteed! If the total is 200.0 for the game and the 1st hald was 99 then the second half market will be 99.5 or 101.0 or there abouts. Its when its way off, when its harder to know what bookies will exactly do.
So sometimes they can't but more than often irrespective of what happens in the game, they play their book before the game itself. That's when I suggest stepping in and betting, if you have had a good look at the teams and then see game differently, or see something a miss.
Another quick example was in the NFL NY Jets @ Seattle in the snow! The game total started at 41.0 and at halftime it was 3-7. NY Jets the 3.5pt favs didn't look like scoring And being in the snow meant it was going to be even harder! So what did the bookies put up for the second half 18.5pts! You have got to be kidding... I could not have enough on the unders! The weather and the game dictated it was always going to come down to FG's or a fluke TD... The second half was 0-6 and hence I collected! Again using the opening line and total points against the bookies!
Next Blog : the NFL Week 17 tips.
Happy Punting
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