First of all if you happened to read my previous post called "NFL week 17 getting on the Money" you would have found yourself a nice little treble with the Pats winning (and covering the line, which was great for Betchoice.com), Ravens covering their -12.0 and the San Diego Chargers easily making a mockery of the 'enver Broncos... no "D" in Denver. The multi dividend paid $1.48*$1.93*1.93 = $5.51 too easy. That's why I call them Specials, sure some other suggestions won, but more importantly the specials got up!
But what I wanted to explain today is that last years form is last years form. Sure its great to say things like the New England Patriots always struggle against Miami, Or Notre Dame Fightin' Irish never win bowl games being 0-9 until this years victory (a very very bad result for Betchoice.com). But at some point during the season, you have to re-assess a team and say these guys are actually pretty good and nothing like last years team, or previous history. Yes the Patriots went 18-whatever last season, but this year they have no Brady and the other teams in their division have got better.
But lets look at the Miami Dolphins last year, they had one victory, got Bill Parcels (pitcured) and improved dramatically. Sure the Pats came back to the pack, but in week 10 when they were 5-4 this season you could still get $12.50 for them to win the AFC East. To me that's value, and 'cos the Pats were winning and NY Jets were going fine people just assume that the Dolphins will tank, and Pats or NY Jets will win it. Another example is the Atlanta Falcons who started at what I call a genuine 500-1! They lost one of the greatest QB's ever in Michael Vick, gave up good veterans like TE Alge Crumpler, had a rookie Coach and a rookie QB in a division which featured teams who were genuine threats. Sure their first two wins came against win less Detroit and Kansas City, but at some point you have to see the team in front of you! For the record they are $31 going into the playoffs. I had a few pennies at 100-1 but nothing serious.
Yes the Boston Celtics are who they were last year.
Last example is the Tampa Bay Rays this 2008 season. Again they are in probably the toughest division with the Boston Red Sox and NY Yankees, with close to the smallest payroll in the Majors. And though I recall they started more than $140 at some places. When it got to 2/3rds into the season they were playing great, had great pitching and simply put were in the top three teams in the American League with the Angels and Red Sox but you could still get $46. When they were firming their position as leaders of the East or the American League wild card, they were still $26.... yes I got on for plenty, but didn't bet back against the Phillies though.
But what I wanted to explain today is that last years form is last years form. Sure its great to say things like the New England Patriots always struggle against Miami, Or Notre Dame Fightin' Irish never win bowl games being 0-9 until this years victory (a very very bad result for Betchoice.com). But at some point during the season, you have to re-assess a team and say these guys are actually pretty good and nothing like last years team, or previous history. Yes the Patriots went 18-whatever last season, but this year they have no Brady and the other teams in their division have got better.
But lets look at the Miami Dolphins last year, they had one victory, got Bill Parcels (pitcured) and improved dramatically. Sure the Pats came back to the pack, but in week 10 when they were 5-4 this season you could still get $12.50 for them to win the AFC East. To me that's value, and 'cos the Pats were winning and NY Jets were going fine people just assume that the Dolphins will tank, and Pats or NY Jets will win it. Another example is the Atlanta Falcons who started at what I call a genuine 500-1! They lost one of the greatest QB's ever in Michael Vick, gave up good veterans like TE Alge Crumpler, had a rookie Coach and a rookie QB in a division which featured teams who were genuine threats. Sure their first two wins came against win less Detroit and Kansas City, but at some point you have to see the team in front of you! For the record they are $31 going into the playoffs. I had a few pennies at 100-1 but nothing serious.
Yes the Boston Celtics are who they were last year.
Last example is the Tampa Bay Rays this 2008 season. Again they are in probably the toughest division with the Boston Red Sox and NY Yankees, with close to the smallest payroll in the Majors. And though I recall they started more than $140 at some places. When it got to 2/3rds into the season they were playing great, had great pitching and simply put were in the top three teams in the American League with the Angels and Red Sox but you could still get $46. When they were firming their position as leaders of the East or the American League wild card, they were still $26.... yes I got on for plenty, but didn't bet back against the Phillies though.
So some teams are "who we thought they are" others are wolves in sheeps clothing. And then there are the true diamonds in the rough, which is what I love looking for, especially when the rest of the world don't think they can go on with it!!
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