So it's the last week of the season. And lets start with my first rule which mug punters love. They love to back teams that have to win vs teams that don't have anything to play for. Most of the time may I suggest that the teams aren't that good to start with, and hence that's why they have to win! As such, the fact that they are leaving it to the last week, doesn't automatically mean that they deserve your hard earned money or the victory.
Think of Denver, three game lead with three games to go. They have to win one game to win the division, but alas haven't managed that so far (including last weeks lame effort at home to the Bills) you thought that last week they would win as they wouldn't want to leave it to the last week in San Diego, but they have. Add to this equation, when teams don't have anything to play for, they can relax and not tense up under pressure.
For me, I see the last week as any other week. Line up the teams, the betting and then have a look at their motivation. Let's look atthe Dallas Cowboys who have to win, but away to the Eagles who have nothing to play for suggests to me that the Cowboys have put themselves into this situation all by themselves. And this is a prime example of just because a team has to win, doesn't mean that they will win, especially against a decent team on the road. I am not suggesting that Dallas can't win, or Eagles will win, but this is a perfect "no bet" game. Would you be surprised if either side won? Would you back them in week 3 for example?
Looking at the Tampa Bay must win, vs a hopeless Raiders team whom really aren't that bad on the whole. I think the line is a little long here at 13.0. They should win, but -13.0 seems a big ask. What's to note here is that I am avoiding teams which I would normally back if it was a midseason match if they don't have to win, like the NY Giants who would normally be strong favourites. Watching a coach rest players by the team you have backed, can bring tears to the eyes.
Alright lets get down to who I am backing with conviction... but even though it may look like I am simply backing teams that must win, vs teams that don't. The difference is I feel these teams can win and will win. If it wasn't the last week I would still be backing these teams, and for mine that's the key difference. I am not backing them because they have to win, but because they can!
Lets start with the Baltimore Ravens, last year when they lost in overtime to give Miami their only win for the season I could not have enough on the Dolphins and I shared it with my entire office. There are games you like to hang your hat on (put your career on) and this was one of them. As was the Pats last week! Anyway, this year the Ravens have been great to me! And for mine, at home this defense won't let Jacksonville on the board so it's just a question whether Flacco can get two TD's on the board, I am tipping and backing he can! He should get help from his mate Willis McGahee pictured.
Okay another team that can and will win is the New England Patriots if you like taking the shorts, the threes-on ($1.36 or -270) seems a pretty fair Price. Even though they are away to inter divisional rivals, I am happy to take the -6.5 as I think they will put the sword to the Bills. A bit like the Arizona Cardinals last week who mailed it in before the game started. Don't think the Pats are a bad team, they aren't backing into the playoffs like the Chargers or Arizona. My suspected 11-5 records for the Pats is damn good and playoff worthy.
Finally the late game has a team which has totally fallen apart in the form of the 'enver Broncos (No "D" in Denver) away to the San Diego Chargers. As I mentioned before the Broncos are the only team to have a 3 game division lead and NOT make the playoffs. Both teams must win, but seriously besides the Ed Hockely call for the Chargers which set them back, the Chargers haven't been that bad. Whereas the Broncos have really stunk. Last week Betchoice.com layed the Bills +6.5 against the Broncos mainly due to the weather, but I honestly thought I should be happy to lay the Bills as the Broncos won't waste this chance, even though they led, they not only didn't cover the line, they couldn't find a way to win! So I am suggesting that the Chargers are easily a TD and Field goal better at home than the Broncos. Take the -8.0.
As for the other games, Tampa Bay should win but -13.0 too much Oakland may have lost their offense but their Corner and Defense is pretty damn good, and they are out there a long time each game. Wouldn't be surprised if the Lions beat the Packers, he's a blog waiting to happen. Don't expect bad teams to suddenly play well, even if they are playing another bad team. I like Dallas vs Eagles but Romo ain't 100% and Eagles might be up for this at home. I can understand why the Vikings are favs if the NY Giants rest all their players, but that doesn't mean I wanna back them. Texans seem like they are win one loss one, so perhaps they should be able to win one here? I really like Carolina Panthers but on the road, and especially after such a mentally tough loss, leave me out. Atlanta Falcons should win but the -14.0 even to the Rams seems big, remember last week they got 6 turnovers and really only just fell in to the Vikings. Kansas City Chiefs are slightly better than their record, but doesn't mean they can, just means that the Bengals Defense which has been playing well, may have a tough time as they have little support from their Offense. Titans v Colts??? I really really want to back the Steelers as the Browns are playing like the worse team in Football, Yes worse then the Lions! But all reports suggest that the Steelers will be resting players. Maybe if the line shortens or maybe a bet in the first half, when Ben plays for the 1st qtr gets up 21-0. Maybe that's a bet? Now I would be tipping the Miami Dolphins as one of my special bets, but being a divisional rival game that matters so much to all involved, especially the QB's. It seems too hard to pick, hence the value seems like the Dolphins. Also I don't want my future bet, on Miami Dolphins to win the AFC East to influence what I want to happen, with what I think will happen. Took the $10.50 for the record, in about week 7. Though Arizona has clinched surely they don't want to walk into the playoffs with a loss, sure they might rest players, but they should win. Because of all that I am leaning towards the Seattle Seahawks as I like how they have played in the last few weeks. That leaves San Francisco 49ers who's coach has a "team of winners" and have been playing hard. Whereas Washington for mine has simply deteriorated under coach Jim Zorn, he calls the Offense and well have only scored more points then the Browns, Raiders, Rams and Bengals - great company!
Happy punting and let's hope you wanna know my Playoff tips, but I can say that I will be backing all the wildcards at this stage, especially if they are outsiders. So what if they are away.
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