Superbowl XLVIII

When we look at this years Superbowl XVVII we see a team with the hardest schedule in many a year, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Facing a team which no one thought would be here, a team which hasn't even made the playoffs in my life time, let alone an NFC Champions and a Superbowl appearance, the Arizona Cardinals.

Now listening to every sports commentator and sports writer they will tell you that the line should be shorter. But I thought before the lines came out that it would be -6.5 or -7.0 and it did not surprise me in the slightest, that the line went up so big. Now everyone will give you a thousand opinions and a million stats. It's one of those games which everyone has an opinion on, and it's easily to get overwhelmed in terms of stats and opinions.

So I will make it easy for and won't talk about how Ken Whisenhunt (and Cards assistant coach Russ Grimm) use to be with the Steelers organization and actually should have got the job when Bill Cowher left. Or how how I think Big Ben is one good hit away from another concussion.

Let's talk about betting and who Betchoice.com want! As you can imagine like most bookies, we have not written a ticket on Arizona Cardinals to win the Superbowl, not one penny! Whereas Pittsburgh Steelers have been our worse way by far. All season we haven't been flash odds about the Steelers but still managed to lay them all the time. My US Sports colleague at Betchoice, personally backed the Steelers early on and has them for a fortune, but we will be cheering against his money.

As soon as we put up the -6.5 Steelers we wrote a bet of $10,000 on them within 3mins of putting it up. 2mins later we wrote another $5,000 on the Steelers and $5,000 on the under 46.5 pts. So before I start tipping, I have to keep reminding myself to tip what I think will happen, rather than what I hope for!

So I will start with believing in Arizona Cardinals but take the +7.0 available rather than straight out or +6.5 which I think could be crucial! I really think that the Steelers secondary can be exposed and though I hope they can win, I think +7.0 seems a pretty fair start for the Cards. If the Steelers defense do their job, this could be a very low scoring side, as I don't think Big Ben has been having a great season (admittedly against a very tough schedule). The Steelers have allowed Ben to be sacked over 46 times and the Arizona Defense in the last four games at least, have really turned up. A few good trick plays by the Arizona (like they did in the NFC Championship game) and the Kurt Warner led offense will hopefully show up the Steelers secondary which I think will be vulnerable and hopefully set Arizona on their winning way.

This leads me to my second bet which I am having. Some bookmakers have the 1st Touchdown Scorer, not just for the entire game (both teams) but each team separately. Well Larry Fitzgerald 1st Arizona Touchdown Scorer at $4.75 I thought was serious overs. In other words, I think its a big price considering, he scored the first 3 touchdowns for Arizona last game. And I think it will be hard to run on the Steelers defense so even if they are 2 yards out, the Cardinals will have to go to the air and expose this secondary and let Larry go up and get it! Many places have Larry Fitzgerald $6.50 to score the 1st Touchdown overall! Even if you don't like Arizona that much, you might think they get a TD in 'garbage time' and hopefully it will be to Larry Fitzgerald. I'm hopeful he'll be the first. second, third, fifth, sixth and eighth TD scorer in a high scoring win for Arizona. I have taken plenty of this already so I can only see $4.25 available now.

I could keep talking about this game, but at the end of the day it's actually a bad betting game. When the Pats lost as 12pt favourites last year illustrates anything can happen.

Recap and NFL Championship Tips

So Baltimore fell in and how it all happened who knows? If you look at the stats for this game Titans have 391 total yards to 211 yards for the Ravens who still managed to win? If you want to relive this great tip, catch it on NFL Video review. What worries me already for next week is that the Ravens offence was really two huge passes and for massive gains, and one great catch in the fourth qtr by TE Todd Heap on that final drive. For the record I think Joe Flacco got the ball LATE from his Centre on that final drive, but I am not sure that in itself would have changed the result. I was surprised Titans coach Jeff Fisher didn't challenge. As for my tip on the outsider Baltimore Ravens, they have done me proud. And even though the total moved from 33.0 to 34.0 back to 33.5 a lot of the Betchoice.com punter backed the overs as we tried to keep the total as low as possible. So a good result in the end. Being on Baltimore Ravens to win the Superbowl I would prefer them to play Pittsburgh than the Chargers as a matchup.

As for the Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers game... what the hell happened? I was pretty close to the score 35-14, just the wrong damn team! If you also read the last tip you would have noticed I backed the over 46.5 and wanted to hedge out at 49.0! Luckily one stupid bookie in the Uk went up 49.0 otherwise it would have been a stripout, wasn't going to take under 48.5! I can't believe Carolina went for the extra point in the end, not to mention the intercepts for Carolina in the red zone!!! Sure I had some back on the unders, but thos who followed me at backed the overs, what the hell happened to Carolina? Points wise Arizona did their job, but Carolina in the form of Jake Delhomme just threw it away Favresuque, 5 Intercepts and 1 fumble, you go from -9.5 favs to giving yourself no chance. His passer rating was 39 though I would have just given him -6 on principal. Defensively though how does Larry Fitzgerald (without team mate Anquin Boldin) be allowed to be so Open! Seriously, I am talking wide open, sure sometimes early in the game he went up into double coverage and just wanted the ball more, but other times, it was like a walk in the park? I don't get it! On the other side, Steve Smith got the interference call early in the game, but zero catches until the last minute of the third qtr! Whats going on! If you want to see this tragedy check out the recap video. Just remember if the Eagles beat the NY Giants its an Arizona home game!

Breaking down the other two games, Eli Manning may not have had as bad game as Jake Delhomme, but Giants were just out played and out hussled. I felt after the 1st qtr that the Eagles have got this game and really the NY Giants as a whole don't have their head in the game. Of course I believe the Eagles 'can' Win the lot, and with their 5th visit to the NFC Championship game in 8 years this team reminds me of the NY Giants last year. They do have to travel to Arizona next week, I don't have them favourites, but I can say all other bookies do! Perhaps it was Manning or perhaps it was the Eagles Defense, but five times the Giants got into the red zone, total from that they only got 3 pts! What kept the Giants in the game was McNabb's two intercepts and Westbrook only rushing for 36 yards off 18 carries. I think Arizona in the desert will be a much tougher assignment.

Finally in snowing conditions, Heinz field held up very well and in a high scoring affair the Steelers won 35-24. San Diego really shot themselves in the foot so many times, not so much in turnovers. But like the punt which bounced off Eric Weddle's helmet for Pittsburgh to recover. And not converting on third downs or dropping very catchable passes. For large periods of time I felt that 'if' the Chargers could get that big play, they could break Pittsburgh, but the 67 yard Punt return by Santonio Holmes was that early momentum break that the Steelers needed and the garbage time TD by Darren Sporrles off a 67 yard pass from Rivers was far far too late.

So lets get on to the important stuff who is going to be playing in the Superbowl and how?

The first game is the NFC Championship with the Philadelphia Eagles visiting Arizona at 7am Monday morning Sydney time. In all honesty I was a bit surprised that the line for Philadelphia has firmed and that it started so large. At -3.0 $1.80 (or -125) you could say the line was roughly -2.5 (with -3.0 being far more significant than -2.5). As I write this the line has moved to -3.5 the Eagles and the Total points has come in from 49½ to 47½ I always like backing the overs when the Arizona 'all passing' play. But after being burnt last week - mainly by Jake Delhomme rather than Arizona, I might stay away from the Overs this week. I know you could say that Arizona didn't win it last week, and Jake Delhomme lost it al by himself. But I think the Eagles will be weared out. I don't think the Eagles will underestimate the Cards, a bit like the Panthers did after going up 7-0 on the first drive. But I think back at home where they have been flying all season and unlike the NY Giants last year who looked fresh and ended up playing a very tiring Pats. Sure the offensive line of the Eagles ain't bad, but don't over estimate the game vs the NY Giants, the Giants have not got to McNabb in the last three meetings! Also I think like Arizona they faced QB's in Manning and Delhomme who happened to have their worse games ever! Rather than the Eagles defence having a great game. If you want to be conservative take Arizona with the start +3.5 thats available. But I will be taking Arizona Cardinals to win staright. Last time they played in week 13 the Eagles won 48-20 so maybe high scoring, that was in Philadelphia though and Arizona has started to loose the plot a little then. They have righted the ship now.

As you can tell from the pitcure of TE Edgar Jones I will be staying with the Baltimore Ravens to get to the Superbowl and hence win it all! Again if you want to be conservative take the +6.0 available, it started +4.5 for the Ravens so there has been money for the Steelers, against my tip. A bit like last game, where the Steelers opened at -3.5 favs and finished -7.0 favs at the jump. The Total 33.0 has moved up to 34.0 now. Soley based on the pitch, Heinz Field looked really good in the snow last week, so I don't think this will be an issue. The difference is the Baltimore Defense and why I think the Ravens will win the game, just like how they have won every game. It was the Ravens defense that stopped the Titans three times in the red zone, with two Intercepts and a fumble. I think we will see Ben Roethlisberger on his back and I think we will see points from the Ravens defense. Joe Flacco who is the ONLY rookie QuarterBack to win two playoff games, just think he already has two more playoff victories than Tony Romo - who supposabley has a better supporting cast! I think Flacco is much more than a 'game manager' he's a damn good player and though I was wondering what a QB from Deleware was doing starting in the NFL as a rookie, I got on this Ravens train when they beat the Dolphins 27-13 in Miami in week 7 and have been riding them all the way. He was not put off by the Titans Defense so much that DT Albert Haynesworth and his crew did not get one sack last game. Yeah the Ravens lost to the Steelers 9-13 in week 15 but that was close enough for me to say that the Ravens have improved and the Big Ben has got bagged up some more. Defense wins matches and sadly I think Ben Roethlisberger win get his fourth concussion when LB Terrell Suggs sluggs him 4 times in the game and jumps up to 20 sacks!

Happy Punting, just remember Betchoice.com were up Superbowl prices during all games and we will be again, so you can effecticely bet live! - Brendon

Divisional Playoffs Winners

I want to start by saying two things that have nothing to do with the NFL Divisional Playoffs. 1st Brett Favre please just retire!! NY Jets players don't like you and have the long knives out. As much as intercepts have dogged your career, they use to come with plenty of Touchdowns and great great drives. But the TD's have dried up, the great drives haven't occurred when needed this season. Generally the on-again-off-again-retirement dance is boring and takes away from the legend you should be. Green Bay did the right thing by letting you go, and Chad Pennington and the Miami Dolphin's showed they made the right moves. Culminating in them going into Favre's backyard and absolutely giving it to the Jets. One word for Chad Pennington redemption (So what they they lost to the Ravens, who won't?) One word for Favre Pissoff!

My next quick comment before my tips is for the Boston Celtics, don't get Stephon Dud-bury. Don't reward a bloke who has never made the playoffs with a team! Who has never helped a team in anyway. This guy is poison and what has he ever showed to deserve the coin he gets? Nothing? I could seriously write about how useless this pr$ck is, but he doesn't deserve the blog time!

So this leads to what you all really want to know. Who will win the NFL Divisional Plaffs and by how much. The first game is the AFC matchup of Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee. The way the Defense played last week in Miami, the Ravens could beat anyone, and that's who I am tipping. They have been good to me all season and I will stick with them I picture them trying to really control the clock, put no pressure on rookie Joe Flacco and let their D dominate. Expect RB Le'Ron Mclain to get plenty of touches and it would seriously not surprise me if Baltimore won 9-0 or 16-0 with a touchdown from their D. For Titans to stay in the game, minimise turnovers, the Ravens forced 34 during the season - a league best. Watch out for the Ravens Blitz (capital B) and though the old man Collins has a great offensive line, he should be ready to throw the pill away when he seems the curtain in front of him crumpling, rather than get murdered with an intercept or forced fumble. Betting wise the Titans opened -2.5 favs and are roughly -3.0 favs around the place. The game total has moved from 34 to 35.0 so I would say the money is going against my feelings.

Next up 12:15pm Sunday Sydney time is the NFC game, where the Arizona Cardinals travelling to my Superbowl pick the Carolina Panthers. I personally was spot on with the line here, suggesting -9.5. I think the +10.0 is very big for a team which can score points, and being a playoff game, and even though Arizona don't travel well, I think if we put up 10.0 line, betchoice.om will lay them consistently. Being -10pt favs the Panthers aren't much of a tip and since I agreed with the line, really its perfectly set and no value! But I would back the Panthers at the line before taking Arizona away from home. So perhaps the tip is the Total Points over. Opening at 46.5 I personally took plenty on the overs. Arizona don't run the ball and their passing game means not much time will be run off the clock, the only time they will run the clock down is when Kurt is lying on his back after being sacked. I suspect and hope Carolina can get 46pts themselves. The Total points have increased to 48 to 49.0 depending on where you shop. To me 49.0 is the max I would take as I think it might be 5TD's to 2 or 35-14 for Carolina. If they go to a crazy and put up 50 I will start backing the unders, and own 47, 48, 49 and push the flat 50.0 since I have already backed the overs opener heavily.

Moving to the Monday games in Australia, its another early start as the streaking Eagles visit the defending champions NY Giants. Since I have backed the Carolina Panthers to win the Superbowl, I am very happy that Arizona is visiting them rather than the Eagles! The Eagles have looked super impressive since they trounced the Cowboys in the last week of the regular season. Since being benched Donovan McNabb has played like a man possessed. So much so that I am not going to have a bet in this game. I honestly like the NY Giants, I like how they beat Carolina when it mattered and as defending Champs they know what needs to be done. But the Eagles really scare me. It also suits my Carolina Panthers Superbowl bet (assuming they win) if the Eagles win as that means they will have to come to Carolina for the NFL Championship game, with so many tough games hopefully they will be tired by then, and Brian Westbrook can get re-injured. The first big bet we took on this game was five figures on Eagles to win and with the start, so I will definitely be cheering the NY Giants for Betchoicec.om. The Giants have drifted from -5 favs to -4.0 favs and the total points 41 down to 40.0

Finally we have the bastard San Diego Chargers who I felt where the only team who could beat the Colts and did. Though with less than two minutes to go, the ball in Peyton's hand I thought that would be enough. The holding call on third down and 8 in overtime seemed very dodgy to me, its a not a hold 88% of the time, a bit like LeBron's travel call against the wizards, robbery! Though you may have to take the 3's on ie -300 or 1-3 or $1.30 but I am going to tip Pittsburgh Steeler to win since they are at home and the Chargers are softened up by the Colts. Hopefully LT is hanging out with TO, and we can have a repeat of last year, when he sat on the side lines in "pain" as his team failed. I am not sure about the line though -6.0 seems a lot. And I am not convinced about Big Bens health? I think at home they should win and if Gates and LT are injured I may take the line for the Steelers. Prefer to just to take the shorts. Either way, I think the Ravens will beat either of these two teams to make it to the Superbowl.



I still think the value for the Superbowl are Carolina Panthers ($6) from the NFC and Baltimore Ravens ($9) from the AFC. We might be a bit short these two at Betchoice.com but that means you can get much better odds all the other runners though!!!

Happy punting

Finding the Champions - College Bowl Tips

So we are half way through the Bowl Games and I better let the punters know who is going to win the BCS Championship Game and those lesser games.

So starting with the Cotton Bowl, the line has moved in this game from -7.0 to -4.0 for Texas Tech Red Raiders. Which always makes me worry, as I want to tip the Texas Tech Red Raiders with some confidence. Texas Tech have only lost one game this season, a miserable 65-21 loss to Oklahoma which it seems dogged them all season. Weigh into this that Oklahoma are in the BCS title game, and it illustrates why I really like the Red Raiders. With Graham Harrell as their QB they are #1 in passing offense! For the season they are 8-3 at the Start. Eli Manning will be cheering his Red Raiders home, which will inspire him for his game!

The one game I want to leave out is the Liberty Bowl! Too hard and for mine this is a no bet game! So I can leave you with this, East Carolina has firmed from -1.0 favs to -3.0 and the Total from 43.0 to 41.0. From Statfox : the Pirates are 9-0 at the Start in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +3.0 or better since 1992!

In the Sugar Bowl I am loving the Alabama Crimson Tide and the much hated coach Nick Saban. Alabama have drifted from -10.5 to -9.5 but really I think they are a strong 2 TD better team than the Utah Utes. 3rd on Defense in the country and run 64% of the time so watch the Unders which moved from 47 to 45.50. I am 45.0 at Betchoice.com to try and lure the overs, we have plenty of over punters. They are the one who take overs, no matter what I put up, they love overtime!

On Sunday morning 4am Sydney time, we have the Fiesta Bowl and again a team which I think will sh$t in, that's the Connecticut Huskies who I can't believe are only -6.5 favs. Seriously they are up to 3 TD"s better than the Buffalo U Bulls! Seriously when MAC teams (Buffalo U in this case) are the underdogs in Bowl games, they are 10 straight losses 0-10 in wins and 2-8 at the start! Outside the MAC they are well over matched compared to the rest of the BCS.

Before talking about the Fiesta Bowl, a subplot is the fact Texas Longhorns may feel duded by not going to the Championship game, so if Texas can win big and Oklahoma looses, there will be plenty of airwaves talk and whining how Texas should have been in the big dance! Not to mention that 12-0 Boise State have a claim for being in this game, but hey they lost the chance at perfection to TCU anyway. The line in this game has moved from -11.5 to -8.0 and since I have kept Texas short, Betchoice.com has had plenty of money for the Buckeye's but I don't mind. I like Texas Longhorns by about 10.0 so the -11.5 start seemed a bit big, but anything under -9.5 give me the Longhorns. The total points has moved from 54 to 52.

Though I have tipped against most of the line moves, this one I have to agree with. The Ball State Cardinals have drifted from -2.5 favs to Pk, whilst the total points has moved from 73 to 71.0. I get a feeling that many of the College Bowl games this season as been unders and as such the punters have started to simply back the unders. Rather than looking at games individually, don't be surprised that many of the punters simply switch to a trend, rather than do any form. Anyway, I like the Tulsa Golden Eagles mainly as I do not believe in Ball State 12-1 record or the MAC (again). But I don't think this is a good betting game, mainly as it has more to do with NOT liking Ball State. I always tell people, don't expect bad teams to win for you. Sometimes, two bad teams will play each other and you can see that a team is much better than their record, and hence back them. But otherwise, if too bad teams play each other stay away. And in this case may I suggest stay away, I suspect a close game 35-33 Tulsa.

Alright the big one, the Big dance for all the marbles. the BCS Championship game. And let's get straight to the winner the Florida Gators I totally believe in Tim Tebow and think he should have had his second Heisman trophy. Florida have won their last 9 games by a 36.4 pts margin on average. This helped them to a 10-2 record at the start, and 7-0 if they score 34pts or more. The difference is I think they can stop Oklahoma Sooners (pictured) and though the Sooners are 8-0 at the start when they score 50 pts, I am guessing most teams would be 8-0 if they can score 50 in a game or more?!? So far we have layed Oklahoma heavily, but that's to be expected when Betchoice.com was the best price in the football universe. The total points have moved from 73 to 71.0 I would be leaning to overs here, mainly as its about Oklahoma trying to stay with Florida. I think Florida defense can stop Oklahoma's, high potent offense. I am not sure I can say the same for Oklahoma's D which is a bit 'enver Bronco'sish. Oh yeah, the Sooners do have a Heisman trophy winner in QB Sam "Boomer" Bradford.

Happy Punting, hope we can all fill up!