When we look at this years Superbowl XVVII we see a team with the hardest schedule in many a year, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Facing a team which no one thought would be here, a team which hasn't even made the playoffs in my life time, let alone an NFC Champions and a Superbowl appearance, the Arizona Cardinals.
Now listening to every sports commentator and sports writer they will tell you that the line should be shorter. But I thought before the lines came out that it would be -6.5 or -7.0 and it did not surprise me in the slightest, that the line went up so big. Now everyone will give you a thousand opinions and a million stats. It's one of those games which everyone has an opinion on, and it's easily to get overwhelmed in terms of stats and opinions.
So I will make it easy for and won't talk about how Ken Whisenhunt (and Cards assistant coach Russ Grimm) use to be with the Steelers organization and actually should have got the job when Bill Cowher left. Or how how I think Big Ben is one good hit away from another concussion.
Let's talk about betting and who Betchoice.com want! As you can imagine like most bookies, we have not written a ticket on Arizona Cardinals to win the Superbowl, not one penny! Whereas Pittsburgh Steelers have been our worse way by far. All season we haven't been flash odds about the Steelers but still managed to lay them all the time. My US Sports colleague at Betchoice, personally backed the Steelers early on and has them for a fortune, but we will be cheering against his money.
As soon as we put up the -6.5 Steelers we wrote a bet of $10,000 on them within 3mins of putting it up. 2mins later we wrote another $5,000 on the Steelers and $5,000 on the under 46.5 pts. So before I start tipping, I have to keep reminding myself to tip what I think will happen, rather than what I hope for!
So I will start with believing in Arizona Cardinals but take the +7.0 available rather than straight out or +6.5 which I think could be crucial! I really think that the Steelers secondary can be exposed and though I hope they can win, I think +7.0 seems a pretty fair start for the Cards. If the Steelers defense do their job, this could be a very low scoring side, as I don't think Big Ben has been having a great season (admittedly against a very tough schedule). The Steelers have allowed Ben to be sacked over 46 times and the Arizona Defense in the last four games at least, have really turned up. A few good trick plays by the Arizona (like they did in the NFC Championship game) and the Kurt Warner led offense will hopefully show up the Steelers secondary which I think will be vulnerable and hopefully set Arizona on their winning way.
This leads me to my second bet which I am having. Some bookmakers have the 1st Touchdown Scorer, not just for the entire game (both teams) but each team separately. Well Larry Fitzgerald 1st Arizona Touchdown Scorer at $4.75 I thought was serious overs. In other words, I think its a big price considering, he scored the first 3 touchdowns for Arizona last game. And I think it will be hard to run on the Steelers defense so even if they are 2 yards out, the Cardinals will have to go to the air and expose this secondary and let Larry go up and get it! Many places have Larry Fitzgerald $6.50 to score the 1st Touchdown overall! Even if you don't like Arizona that much, you might think they get a TD in 'garbage time' and hopefully it will be to Larry Fitzgerald. I'm hopeful he'll be the first. second, third, fifth, sixth and eighth TD scorer in a high scoring win for Arizona. I have taken plenty of this already so I can only see $4.25 available now.
Now listening to every sports commentator and sports writer they will tell you that the line should be shorter. But I thought before the lines came out that it would be -6.5 or -7.0 and it did not surprise me in the slightest, that the line went up so big. Now everyone will give you a thousand opinions and a million stats. It's one of those games which everyone has an opinion on, and it's easily to get overwhelmed in terms of stats and opinions.
So I will make it easy for and won't talk about how Ken Whisenhunt (and Cards assistant coach Russ Grimm) use to be with the Steelers organization and actually should have got the job when Bill Cowher left. Or how how I think Big Ben is one good hit away from another concussion.
Let's talk about betting and who Betchoice.com want! As you can imagine like most bookies, we have not written a ticket on Arizona Cardinals to win the Superbowl, not one penny! Whereas Pittsburgh Steelers have been our worse way by far. All season we haven't been flash odds about the Steelers but still managed to lay them all the time. My US Sports colleague at Betchoice, personally backed the Steelers early on and has them for a fortune, but we will be cheering against his money.
As soon as we put up the -6.5 Steelers we wrote a bet of $10,000 on them within 3mins of putting it up. 2mins later we wrote another $5,000 on the Steelers and $5,000 on the under 46.5 pts. So before I start tipping, I have to keep reminding myself to tip what I think will happen, rather than what I hope for!
So I will start with believing in Arizona Cardinals but take the +7.0 available rather than straight out or +6.5 which I think could be crucial! I really think that the Steelers secondary can be exposed and though I hope they can win, I think +7.0 seems a pretty fair start for the Cards. If the Steelers defense do their job, this could be a very low scoring side, as I don't think Big Ben has been having a great season (admittedly against a very tough schedule). The Steelers have allowed Ben to be sacked over 46 times and the Arizona Defense in the last four games at least, have really turned up. A few good trick plays by the Arizona (like they did in the NFC Championship game) and the Kurt Warner led offense will hopefully show up the Steelers secondary which I think will be vulnerable and hopefully set Arizona on their winning way.
This leads me to my second bet which I am having. Some bookmakers have the 1st Touchdown Scorer, not just for the entire game (both teams) but each team separately. Well Larry Fitzgerald 1st Arizona Touchdown Scorer at $4.75 I thought was serious overs. In other words, I think its a big price considering, he scored the first 3 touchdowns for Arizona last game. And I think it will be hard to run on the Steelers defense so even if they are 2 yards out, the Cardinals will have to go to the air and expose this secondary and let Larry go up and get it! Many places have Larry Fitzgerald $6.50 to score the 1st Touchdown overall! Even if you don't like Arizona that much, you might think they get a TD in 'garbage time' and hopefully it will be to Larry Fitzgerald. I'm hopeful he'll be the first. second, third, fifth, sixth and eighth TD scorer in a high scoring win for Arizona. I have taken plenty of this already so I can only see $4.25 available now.
I could keep talking about this game, but at the end of the day it's actually a bad betting game. When the Pats lost as 12pt favourites last year illustrates anything can happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment