Monday, January 5, 2009
Divisional Playoffs Winners
I want to start by saying two things that have nothing to do with the NFL Divisional Playoffs. 1st Brett Favre please just retire!! NY Jets players don't like you and have the long knives out. As much as intercepts have dogged your career, they use to come with plenty of Touchdowns and great great drives. But the TD's have dried up, the great drives haven't occurred when needed this season. Generally the on-again-off-again-retirement dance is boring and takes away from the legend you should be. Green Bay did the right thing by letting you go, and Chad Pennington and the Miami Dolphin's showed they made the right moves. Culminating in them going into Favre's backyard and absolutely giving it to the Jets. One word for Chad Pennington redemption (So what they they lost to the Ravens, who won't?) One word for Favre Pissoff!
My next quick comment before my tips is for the Boston Celtics, don't get Stephon Dud-bury. Don't reward a bloke who has never made the playoffs with a team! Who has never helped a team in anyway. This guy is poison and what has he ever showed to deserve the coin he gets? Nothing? I could seriously write about how useless this pr$ck is, but he doesn't deserve the blog time!
So this leads to what you all really want to know. Who will win the NFL Divisional Plaffs and by how much. The first game is the AFC matchup of Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee. The way the Defense played last week in Miami, the Ravens could beat anyone, and that's who I am tipping. They have been good to me all season and I will stick with them I picture them trying to really control the clock, put no pressure on rookie Joe Flacco and let their D dominate. Expect RB Le'Ron Mclain to get plenty of touches and it would seriously not surprise me if Baltimore won 9-0 or 16-0 with a touchdown from their D. For Titans to stay in the game, minimise turnovers, the Ravens forced 34 during the season - a league best. Watch out for the Ravens Blitz (capital B) and though the old man Collins has a great offensive line, he should be ready to throw the pill away when he seems the curtain in front of him crumpling, rather than get murdered with an intercept or forced fumble. Betting wise the Titans opened -2.5 favs and are roughly -3.0 favs around the place. The game total has moved from 34 to 35.0 so I would say the money is going against my feelings.
Next up 12:15pm Sunday Sydney time is the NFC game, where the Arizona Cardinals travelling to my Superbowl pick the Carolina Panthers. I personally was spot on with the line here, suggesting -9.5. I think the +10.0 is very big for a team which can score points, and being a playoff game, and even though Arizona don't travel well, I think if we put up 10.0 line, betchoice.om will lay them consistently. Being -10pt favs the Panthers aren't much of a tip and since I agreed with the line, really its perfectly set and no value! But I would back the Panthers at the line before taking Arizona away from home. So perhaps the tip is the Total Points over. Opening at 46.5 I personally took plenty on the overs. Arizona don't run the ball and their passing game means not much time will be run off the clock, the only time they will run the clock down is when Kurt is lying on his back after being sacked. I suspect and hope Carolina can get 46pts themselves. The Total points have increased to 48 to 49.0 depending on where you shop. To me 49.0 is the max I would take as I think it might be 5TD's to 2 or 35-14 for Carolina. If they go to a crazy and put up 50 I will start backing the unders, and own 47, 48, 49 and push the flat 50.0 since I have already backed the overs opener heavily.
Moving to the Monday games in Australia, its another early start as the streaking Eagles visit the defending champions NY Giants. Since I have backed the Carolina Panthers to win the Superbowl, I am very happy that Arizona is visiting them rather than the Eagles! The Eagles have looked super impressive since they trounced the Cowboys in the last week of the regular season. Since being benched Donovan McNabb has played like a man possessed. So much so that I am not going to have a bet in this game. I honestly like the NY Giants, I like how they beat Carolina when it mattered and as defending Champs they know what needs to be done. But the Eagles really scare me. It also suits my Carolina Panthers Superbowl bet (assuming they win) if the Eagles win as that means they will have to come to Carolina for the NFL Championship game, with so many tough games hopefully they will be tired by then, and Brian Westbrook can get re-injured. The first big bet we took on this game was five figures on Eagles to win and with the start, so I will definitely be cheering the NY Giants for Betchoicec.om. The Giants have drifted from -5 favs to -4.0 favs and the total points 41 down to 40.0
Finally we have the bastard San Diego Chargers who I felt where the only team who could beat the Colts and did. Though with less than two minutes to go, the ball in Peyton's hand I thought that would be enough. The holding call on third down and 8 in overtime seemed very dodgy to me, its a not a hold 88% of the time, a bit like LeBron's travel call against the wizards, robbery! Though you may have to take the 3's on ie -300 or 1-3 or $1.30 but I am going to tip Pittsburgh Steeler to win since they are at home and the Chargers are softened up by the Colts. Hopefully LT is hanging out with TO, and we can have a repeat of last year, when he sat on the side lines in "pain" as his team failed. I am not sure about the line though -6.0 seems a lot. And I am not convinced about Big Bens health? I think at home they should win and if Gates and LT are injured I may take the line for the Steelers. Prefer to just to take the shorts. Either way, I think the Ravens will beat either of these two teams to make it to the Superbowl.
I still think the value for the Superbowl are Carolina Panthers ($6) from the NFC and Baltimore Ravens ($9) from the AFC. We might be a bit short these two at Betchoice.com but that means you can get much better odds all the other runners though!!!
Happy punting
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