So we are half way through the Bowl Games and I better let the punters know who is going to win the BCS Championship Game and those lesser games.
So starting with the Cotton Bowl, the line has moved in this game from -7.0 to -4.0 for Texas Tech Red Raiders. Which always makes me worry, as I want to tip the Texas Tech Red Raiders with some confidence. Texas Tech have only lost one game this season, a miserable 65-21 loss to Oklahoma which it seems dogged them all season. Weigh into this that Oklahoma are in the BCS title game, and it illustrates why I really like the Red Raiders. With Graham Harrell as their QB they are #1 in passing offense! For the season they are 8-3 at the Start. Eli Manning will be cheering his Red Raiders home, which will inspire him for his game!
The one game I want to leave out is the Liberty Bowl! Too hard and for mine this is a no bet game! So I can leave you with this, East Carolina has firmed from -1.0 favs to -3.0 and the Total from 43.0 to 41.0. From Statfox : the Pirates are 9-0 at the Start in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +3.0 or better since 1992!
The one game I want to leave out is the Liberty Bowl! Too hard and for mine this is a no bet game! So I can leave you with this, East Carolina has firmed from -1.0 favs to -3.0 and the Total from 43.0 to 41.0. From Statfox : the Pirates are 9-0 at the Start in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +3.0 or better since 1992!
In the Sugar Bowl I am loving the Alabama Crimson Tide and the much hated coach Nick Saban. Alabama have drifted from -10.5 to -9.5 but really I think they are a strong 2 TD better team than the Utah Utes. 3rd on Defense in the country and run 64% of the time so watch the Unders which moved from 47 to 45.50. I am 45.0 at Betchoice.com to try and lure the overs, we have plenty of over punters. They are the one who take overs, no matter what I put up, they love overtime!
On Sunday morning 4am Sydney time, we have the Fiesta Bowl and again a team which I think will sh$t in, that's the Connecticut Huskies who I can't believe are only -6.5 favs. Seriously they are up to 3 TD"s better than the Buffalo U Bulls! Seriously when MAC teams (Buffalo U in this case) are the underdogs in Bowl games, they are 10 straight losses 0-10 in wins and 2-8 at the start! Outside the MAC they are well over matched compared to the rest of the BCS.
Before talking about the Fiesta Bowl, a subplot is the fact Texas Longhorns may feel duded by not going to the Championship game, so if Texas can win big and Oklahoma looses, there will be plenty of airwaves talk and whining how Texas should have been in the big dance! Not to mention that 12-0 Boise State have a claim for being in this game, but hey they lost the chance at perfection to TCU anyway. The line in this game has moved from -11.5 to -8.0 and since I have kept Texas short, Betchoice.com has had plenty of money for the Buckeye's but I don't mind. I like Texas Longhorns by about 10.0 so the -11.5 start seemed a bit big, but anything under -9.5 give me the Longhorns. The total points has moved from 54 to 52.
Though I have tipped against most of the line moves, this one I have to agree with. The Ball State Cardinals have drifted from -2.5 favs to Pk, whilst the total points has moved from 73 to 71.0. I get a feeling that many of the College Bowl games this season as been unders and as such the punters have started to simply back the unders. Rather than looking at games individually, don't be surprised that many of the punters simply switch to a trend, rather than do any form. Anyway, I like the Tulsa Golden Eagles mainly as I do not believe in Ball State 12-1 record or the MAC (again). But I don't think this is a good betting game, mainly as it has more to do with NOT liking Ball State. I always tell people, don't expect bad teams to win for you. Sometimes, two bad teams will play each other and you can see that a team is much better than their record, and hence back them. But otherwise, if too bad teams play each other stay away. And in this case may I suggest stay away, I suspect a close game 35-33 Tulsa.
Alright the big one, the Big dance for all the marbles. the BCS Championship game. And let's get straight to the winner the Florida Gators I totally believe in Tim Tebow and think he should have had his second Heisman trophy. Florida have won their last 9 games by a 36.4 pts margin on average. This helped them to a 10-2 record at the start, and 7-0 if they score 34pts or more. The difference is I think they can stop Oklahoma Sooners (pictured) and though the Sooners are 8-0 at the start when they score 50 pts, I am guessing most teams would be 8-0 if they can score 50 in a game or more?!? So far we have layed Oklahoma heavily, but that's to be expected when Betchoice.com was the best price in the football universe. The total points have moved from 73 to 71.0 I would be leaning to overs here, mainly as its about Oklahoma trying to stay with Florida. I think Florida defense can stop Oklahoma's, high potent offense. I am not sure I can say the same for Oklahoma's D which is a bit 'enver Bronco'sish. Oh yeah, the Sooners do have a Heisman trophy winner in QB Sam "Boomer" Bradford.
On Sunday morning 4am Sydney time, we have the Fiesta Bowl and again a team which I think will sh$t in, that's the Connecticut Huskies who I can't believe are only -6.5 favs. Seriously they are up to 3 TD"s better than the Buffalo U Bulls! Seriously when MAC teams (Buffalo U in this case) are the underdogs in Bowl games, they are 10 straight losses 0-10 in wins and 2-8 at the start! Outside the MAC they are well over matched compared to the rest of the BCS.
Before talking about the Fiesta Bowl, a subplot is the fact Texas Longhorns may feel duded by not going to the Championship game, so if Texas can win big and Oklahoma looses, there will be plenty of airwaves talk and whining how Texas should have been in the big dance! Not to mention that 12-0 Boise State have a claim for being in this game, but hey they lost the chance at perfection to TCU anyway. The line in this game has moved from -11.5 to -8.0 and since I have kept Texas short, Betchoice.com has had plenty of money for the Buckeye's but I don't mind. I like Texas Longhorns by about 10.0 so the -11.5 start seemed a bit big, but anything under -9.5 give me the Longhorns. The total points has moved from 54 to 52.
Though I have tipped against most of the line moves, this one I have to agree with. The Ball State Cardinals have drifted from -2.5 favs to Pk, whilst the total points has moved from 73 to 71.0. I get a feeling that many of the College Bowl games this season as been unders and as such the punters have started to simply back the unders. Rather than looking at games individually, don't be surprised that many of the punters simply switch to a trend, rather than do any form. Anyway, I like the Tulsa Golden Eagles mainly as I do not believe in Ball State 12-1 record or the MAC (again). But I don't think this is a good betting game, mainly as it has more to do with NOT liking Ball State. I always tell people, don't expect bad teams to win for you. Sometimes, two bad teams will play each other and you can see that a team is much better than their record, and hence back them. But otherwise, if too bad teams play each other stay away. And in this case may I suggest stay away, I suspect a close game 35-33 Tulsa.
Alright the big one, the Big dance for all the marbles. the BCS Championship game. And let's get straight to the winner the Florida Gators I totally believe in Tim Tebow and think he should have had his second Heisman trophy. Florida have won their last 9 games by a 36.4 pts margin on average. This helped them to a 10-2 record at the start, and 7-0 if they score 34pts or more. The difference is I think they can stop Oklahoma Sooners (pictured) and though the Sooners are 8-0 at the start when they score 50 pts, I am guessing most teams would be 8-0 if they can score 50 in a game or more?!? So far we have layed Oklahoma heavily, but that's to be expected when Betchoice.com was the best price in the football universe. The total points have moved from 73 to 71.0 I would be leaning to overs here, mainly as its about Oklahoma trying to stay with Florida. I think Florida defense can stop Oklahoma's, high potent offense. I am not sure I can say the same for Oklahoma's D which is a bit 'enver Bronco'sish. Oh yeah, the Sooners do have a Heisman trophy winner in QB Sam "Boomer" Bradford.
Happy Punting, hope we can all fill up!
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